TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044524
Played Aug 30Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
5.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
311118116811117
Viktor Leonov
Away
1.14
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:15 and never touched — 86.8% is still 86.8%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
86.8%
86.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Viktor Leonov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 86.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 4–28 Viktor Leonov Hennadii Buianover has won 4 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Leonov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-28 in 32
Leonov
Wrong
gap of 24 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1233 vs Leonov 1350
Leonov
Wrong
both rated, 117 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 80% vs Leonov 60%
Buianover
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 50% vs Leonov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover +2 · Leonov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Leonov) · live re-read · sealed at 87% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (60%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 5.00 / Leonov 1.14
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Leonov)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13044524
Buianover5.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog31% won 41 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 53
Leonov1.14
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover2wins
AwayLeonov8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLeonov leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover66.7%2 of 3
AwayLeonov100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover3Leonov7n = 10Leonov took 7 of 10
S2Buianover2Leonov8n = 10Leonov took 8 of 10
S3Buianover3Leonov7n = 10Leonov took 7 of 10
S4Buianover2Leonov1n = 3Buianover took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away660%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverLeonovB − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match27.935.4−7.5per matchSweeps16−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverLeonovBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 367 vs 73 / 12039.5%60.8%145 / 367 vs 73 / 120Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovBuianover 5.00/Leonov 1.14
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
85.7%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Buianover won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 13:35H. Buianover—6770V. Leonov—1111113
LAug 5 · 14:35H. Buianover—45111192V. Leonov—111191113
LJul 23 · 15:35H. Buianover—11118672V. Leonov—981111113
LJul 14 · 16:35H. Buianover—37100V. Leonov—1111123
LJun 28 · 19:25H. Buianover—6980V. Leonov—1111113
WJun 14 · 14:55H. Buianover—1211123V. Leonov—107100
WApr 19 · 18:05H. Buianover—11811123V. Leonov—4119101
LMar 8 · 13:35H. Buianover—4480V. Leonov—1111113
LDec 29 · 19:35H. Buianover—10670V. Leonov—1211113
LDec 22 · 15:05H. Buianover—6560V. Leonov—1111113
H. Buianover10
WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123LSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113WSep 1 · 18:05H. Buianover3.5011711113A. Sydorenko1.28211661WSep 1 · 16:05I. Chernyshov2.632770H. Buianover1.441111113LSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980
V. Leonov10
LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113WAug 30 · 18:55V. Reva3.4061111882V. Leonov1.30119811113LAug 30 · 17:25V. Vasiukov1.611111123V. Leonov2.2076100WAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov2.381110861V. Leonov1.5371211113LAug 30 · 13:25V. Lukianevych1.801111113V. Leonov1.918310
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