TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060709
Played Sep 2Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
4.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711117411––
Viktor Leonov
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Viktor Leonov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 70 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 82.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 5–28 Viktor Leonov Hennadii Buianover has won 5 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Leonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-28 in 33
Leonov
Correct
gap of 23 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1235 vs Leonov 1337
Leonov
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 40% vs Leonov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 50% vs Leonov 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover -1 · Leonov +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Leonov) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (40%) is below what odds imply (86%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 4.50 / Leonov 1.17
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Leonov)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13060709
Buianover4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 43 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back12% 9 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 54
Leonov1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 35 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover3wins
AwayLeonov7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLeonov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover66.7%2 of 3
AwayLeonov85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover3Leonov7n = 10Leonov took 7 of 10
S2Buianover3Leonov7n = 10Leonov took 7 of 10
S3Buianover4Leonov6n = 10Leonov took 6 of 10
S4Buianover2Leonov2n = 4split evenly
S5Buianover1Leonov2n = 3Leonov took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverLeonovB − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.636.4−5.8per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverLeonovBasisWin rate · lifetime148 / 374 vs 75 / 12539.6%60%148 / 374 vs 75 / 125Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovBuianover 4.50/Leonov 1.17
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.7%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 19:55H. Buianover—311118113V. Leonov—11861172
LAug 10 · 13:35H. Buianover—6770V. Leonov—1111113
LAug 5 · 14:35H. Buianover—45111192V. Leonov—111191113
LJul 23 · 15:35H. Buianover—11118672V. Leonov—981111113
LJul 14 · 16:35H. Buianover—37100V. Leonov—1111123
LJun 28 · 19:25H. Buianover—6980V. Leonov—1111113
WJun 14 · 14:55H. Buianover—1211123V. Leonov—107100
WApr 19 · 18:05H. Buianover—11811123V. Leonov—4119101
LMar 8 · 13:35H. Buianover—4480V. Leonov—1111113
LDec 29 · 19:35H. Buianover—10670V. Leonov—1211113
H. Buianover10
WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123LSep 2 · 12:35H. Buianover2.6310780V. Lukianevych1.441211113WSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113WSep 1 · 18:05H. Buianover3.5011711113A. Sydorenko1.28211661WSep 1 · 16:05I. Chernyshov2.632770H. Buianover1.441111113LSep 1 · 14:05V. Lukianevych1.531111113H. Buianover2.388980LSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
V. Leonov10
LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113LAug 30 · 19:55H. Buianover5.00311118113V. Leonov1.1411861172WAug 30 · 18:55V. Reva3.4061111882V. Leonov1.30119811113LAug 30 · 17:25V. Vasiukov1.611111123V. Leonov2.2076100WAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov2.381110861V. Leonov1.5371211113LAug 30 · 13:25V. Lukianevych1.801111113V. Leonov1.918310
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