TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13044533
Played Aug 30Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171012811611––
Viktor Leonov
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:25 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Viktor Leonov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 76 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 63.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 4–4 Viktor Leonov Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:25What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Leonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1139 vs Leonov 1335
Leonov
Correct
both rated, 196 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 0% vs Leonov 40%
Leonov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 30% vs Leonov 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -5 · Leonov -1
Karelov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Leonov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 2.38 / Leonov 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Leonov)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13044533
Karelov2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog35% won 17 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back25% 6 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Leonov1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 33 of 54
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it79% 23 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKarelov4wins
AwayLeonov4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov57.1%4 of 7
AwayLeonovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov7Leonov1n = 8Karelov took 7 of 8
S2Karelov3Leonov5n = 8Leonov took 5 of 8
S3Karelov4Leonov4n = 8split evenly
S4Karelov4Leonov4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricKarelovLeonovK − LBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set71+6of 8Avg pointsper match41.639.8+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovLeonovBasisWin rate · lifetime32 / 88 vs 73 / 12136.4%60.3%32 / 88 vs 73 / 121Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovKarelov 2.38/Leonov 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 30 · 15:25M. Karelov—1110861V. Leonov—71211113
WAug 19 · 18:05M. Karelov—131011113V. Leonov—1112371
WAug 10 · 15:05M. Karelov—11511123V. Leonov—3119101
LAug 5 · 18:05M. Karelov—11711111V. Leonov—91113133
LJul 28 · 19:35M. Karelov—13811952V. Leonov—1111611113
LJul 14 · 13:05M. Karelov—411111292V. Leonov—116814113
WJul 7 · 13:05M. Karelov—11116123V. Leonov—7811101
WJun 28 · 13:25M. Karelov—11118113V. Leonov—471171
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153
V. Leonov10
LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113LAug 30 · 19:55H. Buianover5.00311118113V. Leonov1.1411861172WAug 30 · 18:55V. Reva3.4061111882V. Leonov1.30119811113LAug 30 · 17:25V. Vasiukov1.611111123V. Leonov2.2076100LAug 30 · 13:25V. Lukianevych1.801111113V. Leonov1.918310
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