TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13055222
Played Sep 1Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115116––––
Vadim Reva
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 74.1% is still 74.1%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
74.1%
74.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Vadim Reva below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Vadim Reva at 74.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 6–11 Vadim Reva Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Reva
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Reva
Wrong
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1135 vs Reva 1352
Reva
Wrong
both rated, 217 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 20% vs Reva 60%
Reva
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 20% vs Reva 50%
Reva
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -2 · Reva +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Reva)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reva form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 3.25 / Reva 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Reva)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13055222
Karelov3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 18 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back27% 7 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back11% 2 of 18
Reva1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite72% won 66 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it84% 48 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov3wins
AwayReva7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderReva leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelovn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayReva62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov2Reva8n = 10Reva took 8 of 10
S2Karelov3Reva7n = 10Reva took 7 of 10
S3Karelov3Reva7n = 10Reva took 7 of 10
S4Karelov3Reva4n = 7Reva took 4 of 7
S5Karelov3Reva1n = 4Karelov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovRevaK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.941.6−5.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovRevaBasisWin rate · lifetime33 / 91 vs 210 / 37336.3%56.3%33 / 91 vs 210 / 373Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RevaKarelov 3.25/Reva 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.1%
Reva · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 20:25M. Karelov—12613952V. Reva—10111111113
LAug 27 · 19:35M. Karelov—11780V. Reva—1311113
WAug 19 · 19:35M. Karelov—571211113V. Reva—111110572
LAug 12 · 15:35M. Karelov—3121151V. Reva—11149113
WAug 10 · 13:05M. Karelov—1012811113V. Reva—121011892
WAug 9 · 16:05M. Karelov—4111011113V. Reva—11812252
LAug 5 · 16:05M. Karelov—117771V. Reva—81111113
LJul 27 · 13:35M. Karelov—611771V. Reva—11711113
LJul 16 · 17:05M. Karelov—11780V. Reva—1311113
LJul 14 · 16:05M. Karelov—10760V. Reva—1211113
M. Karelov10
WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113LSep 1 · 15:05M. Karelov1.611210116132I. Chernyshov2.201012411153WSep 1 · 13:05M. Karelov2.2511116113H. Buianover1.57751161
V. Reva10
LSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113WSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192LSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113WSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133LSep 1 · 14:35V. Reva2.00145731A. Sydorenko1.73121111113WSep 1 · 13:35I. Chernyshov4.50115531V. Reva1.1741111113
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