TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100642
Played Sep 9Finished
Vadim Reva
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711811711––––
Maksym Karelov
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadim Reva above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 55 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Vadim Reva at 64.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Vadim Reva 11–8 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:11What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Reva
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Reva
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reva 1267 vs Karelov 1153
Reva
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reva 40% vs Karelov 20%
Reva
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reva 30% vs Karelov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reva -3 · Karelov -1
Reva
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Reva)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReva 1.53 / Karelov 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Reva)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100642
Reva1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite70% won 67 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it93% 37 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it83% 48 of 58
Karelov2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 21 of 63
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 30
Down 0–2, comes back10% 2 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReva5wins
AwayKarelov5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReva50%3 of 6
AwayKarelov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reva6Karelov4n = 10Reva took 6 of 10
S2Reva6Karelov4n = 10Reva took 6 of 10
S3Reva5Karelov5n = 10split evenly
S4Reva4Karelov4n = 8split evenly
S5Reva1Karelov3n = 4Karelov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRevaKarelovR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.438.3+1.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRevaKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 377 vs 36 / 10055.4%36%209 / 377 vs 36 / 100Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RevaReva 1.53/Karelov 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64%
Reva · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva—811821M. Karelov—11711113
LSep 1 · 17:35V. Reva—7560M. Karelov—1111113
WAug 30 · 20:25V. Reva—10111111113M. Karelov—12613952
WAug 27 · 19:35V. Reva—1311113M. Karelov—11780
LAug 19 · 19:35V. Reva—111110572M. Karelov—571211113
WAug 12 · 15:35V. Reva—11149113M. Karelov—3121151
LAug 10 · 13:05V. Reva—121011892M. Karelov—1012811113
LAug 9 · 16:05V. Reva—11812252M. Karelov—4111011113
WAug 5 · 16:05V. Reva—81111113M. Karelov—117771
WJul 27 · 13:35V. Reva—11711113M. Karelov—611771
V. Reva10
LSep 9 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.67111112113V. Reva2.10381451LSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113WSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192LSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 19:35V. Reva1.571012791H. Buianover2.25121011113LSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560WSep 1 · 15:35V. Lukianevych2.00111199112V. Reva1.73151111133
M. Karelov10
LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WSep 2 · 13:35V. Reva1.44811821M. Karelov2.6311711113LSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych1.5051911113M. Karelov2.501117581WSep 1 · 17:35M. Karelov3.251111113V. Reva1.337560LSep 1 · 16:35M. Karelov3.5011740A. Sydorenko1.281311113
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