TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384751
Played Aug 9Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411911––––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Paksiutov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Paksiutov at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 11–12 Volodymyr Kruglyak Serhii Paksiutov has won 11 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kruglyak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-12 in 23
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paksiutov 1139 vs Kruglyak 1127
Paksiutov
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paksiutov 60% vs Kruglyak 40%
Paksiutov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paksiutov 40% vs Kruglyak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paksiutov +3 · Kruglyak +1
Paksiutov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Paksiutov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 1.83 / Kruglyak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Paksiutov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384751
Paksiutov1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Kruglyak1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaksiutov4wins
AwayKruglyak6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKruglyak leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaksiutov60%3 of 5
AwayKruglyak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paksiutov5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S2Paksiutov6Kruglyak4n = 10Paksiutov took 6 of 10
S3Paksiutov3Kruglyak7n = 10Kruglyak took 7 of 10
S4Paksiutov4Kruglyak5n = 9Kruglyak took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaksiutovKruglyakP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.536.8−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 110 vs 79 / 26232.7%30.2%36 / 110 vs 79 / 262Avg sets wonper match1.51.5per matchAvg pointsper match34.534.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PaksiutovPaksiutov 1.83/Kruglyak 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Paksiutov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kruglyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov4291111113V. Kruglyak33116881
LMar 8 · 16:05S. Paksiutov209380V. Kruglyak331111113
WFeb 1 · 17:55S. Paksiutov4611118163V. Kruglyak397711141
LJan 4 · 16:05S. Paksiutov32119661V. Kruglyak3971111103
WDec 21 · 20:25S. Paksiutov4011711113V. Kruglyak29911451
WNov 23 · 13:35S. Paksiutov351211663V. Kruglyak331091131
LNov 9 · 19:25S. Paksiutov28611561V. Kruglyak3811511113
LSep 28 · 13:05S. Paksiutov26611451V. Kruglyak3711411113
LSep 14 · 14:35S. Paksiutov3611117252V. Kruglyak4359111173
LAug 31 · 13:35S. Paksiutov401191191V. Kruglyak4413119113
S. Paksiutov10
LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153LJun 28 · 14:25V. Reva1.5081111113S. Paksiutov2.50119961LMay 10 · 12:55S. Paksiutov7.508760I. Elfemov1.071111113
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120LJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881
Upcoming Matches
S. Paksiutov
V. Kruglyak
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.