TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384843
Played Aug 9Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611117611––
Maksym Karelov
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Karelov to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Maksym Karelov at 64.5%
72 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 0–2 Maksym Karelov Serhii Paksiutov has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Karelov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Paksiutov 1097 vs Karelov 1160
Karelov
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paksiutov 40% vs Karelov 60%
Karelov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paksiutov 30% vs Karelov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paksiutov -3 · Karelov +2
Paksiutov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Karelov)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 2.63 / Karelov 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Karelov)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384843
Paksiutov2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog21% won 8 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Karelov1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite43% won 13 of 30
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePaksiutov0wins
AwayKarelov2wins
Karelov leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricPaksiutovKarelovP − KBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match28.039.0−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 114 vs 25 / 6331.6%39.7%36 / 114 vs 25 / 63Avg sets wonper match1.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelovPaksiutov 2.63/Karelov 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Karelov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karelov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov32961161M. Karelov4011117113
LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov24110130M. Karelov381112153
S. Paksiutov10
LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153LJun 28 · 14:25V. Reva1.5081111113S. Paksiutov2.50119961LMay 10 · 12:55S. Paksiutov7.508760I. Elfemov1.071111113
M. Karelov10
LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2.6371040V. Lukianevych1.441112113WJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153
Upcoming Matches
S. Paksiutov
M. Karelov
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.