TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384780
Played Aug 9Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
4.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11861111131191012
Andrii Sydorenko 1979
Away
1.22
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:14 and never touched — 80.6% is still 80.6%
Graded at full timeAndrii Sydorenko 1979 to win
80.6%
80.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Andrii Sydorenko 1979 below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 102 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Andrii Sydorenko 1979 at 80.6%
102 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 6–14 Andrii Sydorenko 1979 Serhii Paksiutov has won 6 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:14What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Sydorenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-14 in 20
Sydorenko
Correct
gap of 8 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paksiutov 1119 vs Sydorenko 1318
Sydorenko
Correct
both rated, 199 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paksiutov 60% vs Sydorenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paksiutov 30% vs Sydorenko 80%
Sydorenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paksiutov -2 · Sydorenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Sydorenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sydorenko form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 4.00 / Sydorenko 1.22
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Sydorenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384780
Paksiutov4.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog21% won 8 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Sydorenko1.22
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 82 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it80% 57 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaksiutov4wins
AwaySydorenko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSydorenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaksiutov75%3 of 4
AwaySydorenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paksiutov4Sydorenko6n = 10Sydorenko took 6 of 10
S2Paksiutov4Sydorenko6n = 10Sydorenko took 6 of 10
S3Paksiutov5Sydorenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Paksiutov4Sydorenko4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaksiutovSydorenkoP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.139.2−2.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovSydorenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 112 vs 198 / 31532.1%62.9%36 / 112 vs 198 / 315Avg sets wonper match1.52.3per matchAvg pointsper match34.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SydorenkoPaksiutov 4.00/Sydorenko 1.22
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
80.6%
Sydorenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 3 · 19:35S. Paksiutov311211171A. Sydorenko4114511113
WApr 26 · 14:25S. Paksiutov43111110113A. Sydorenko31651281
LApr 5 · 15:35S. Paksiutov3851211101A. Sydorenko4511148123
LMar 29 · 17:05S. Paksiutov358111151A. Sydorenko4011135113
WMar 22 · 18:05S. Paksiutov501071111113A. Sydorenko4012114672
WJan 4 · 18:05S. Paksiutov351112123A. Sydorenko29910100
LOct 5 · 18:35S. Paksiutov4412691162A. Sydorenko511011119103
WSep 14 · 15:35S. Paksiutov421491183A. Sydorenko371211951
LAug 17 · 14:35S. Paksiutov208570A. Sydorenko331111113
LJul 7 · 15:05S. Paksiutov335135101A. Sydorenko45111111123
S. Paksiutov10
LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153LJun 28 · 14:25V. Reva1.5081111113S. Paksiutov2.50119961LMay 10 · 12:55S. Paksiutov7.508760I. Elfemov1.071111113
A. Sydorenko10
LSep 9 · 18:35V. Leonov1.531311113A. Sydorenko2.3811560WSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192WSep 9 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.5011114113V. Lukianevych2.50961191WSep 9 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.67111112113V. Reva2.10381451LSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113WSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113WSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272LSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192WSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123WSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113
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