TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384692
Played Aug 9Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118411811––
Vadim Reva
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeVadim Reva to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Vadim Reva below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Vadim Reva at 67.3%
69 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 12–20 Vadim Reva Serhii Paksiutov has won 12 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Reva
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-20 in 32
Reva
Correct
gap of 8 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paksiutov 1097 vs Reva 1377
Reva
Correct
both rated, 280 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paksiutov 60% vs Reva 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paksiutov 40% vs Reva 60%
Reva
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paksiutov -1 · Reva +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Reva) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reva form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 2.75 / Reva 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Reva)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384692
Paksiutov2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog21% won 8 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Reva1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite73% won 54 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it86% 36 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaksiutov4wins
AwayReva6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderReva leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaksiutov50%3 of 6
AwayReva75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paksiutov6Reva4n = 10Paksiutov took 6 of 10
S2Paksiutov3Reva7n = 10Reva took 7 of 10
S3Paksiutov4Reva6n = 10Reva took 6 of 10
S4Paksiutov5Reva5n = 10split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaksiutovRevaP − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.240.0−1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovRevaBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 114 vs 198 / 36031.6%55%36 / 114 vs 198 / 360Avg sets wonper match1.52.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RevaPaksiutov 2.75/Reva 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.3%
Reva · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Reva won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov28511481V. Reva4111811113
LJun 28 · 14:25S. Paksiutov35119961V. Reva4181111113
WMay 10 · 07:55S. Paksiutov4715911123V. Reva3613112101
WMar 22 · 14:35S. Paksiutov3911611113V. Reva29711921
LMar 8 · 14:35S. Paksiutov53119131192V. Reva52711158113
WFeb 1 · 16:55S. Paksiutov50147111173V. Reva5016118962
LJan 4 · 14:35S. Paksiutov31911471V. Reva3911611113
LDec 21 · 19:25S. Paksiutov30118651V. Reva3741111113
LNov 30 · 20:55S. Paksiutov32691161V. Reva3711114113
WNov 23 · 20:05S. Paksiutov3712113113V. Reva381081191
S. Paksiutov10
LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153LJun 28 · 14:25V. Reva1.5081111113S. Paksiutov2.50119961LMay 10 · 12:55S. Paksiutov7.508760I. Elfemov1.071111113
V. Reva10
WSep 9 · 19:05V. Reva1.731111113V. Lukianevych2.005740LSep 9 · 17:05V. Leonov1.28126611113V. Reva3.50101111612LSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.67111112113V. Reva2.10381451LSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113WSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192LSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110WJun 28 · 14:25V. Reva1.5081111113S. Paksiutov2.50119961
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