TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12113757
Played Jun 28Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911116118118––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8
75 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 10–12 Volodymyr Kruglyak Serhii Paksiutov has won 10 of their 22 meetings.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kruglyak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 2.25 / Kruglyak 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kruglyak)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12113757
Paksiutov2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog30% won 13 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back12% 3 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Kruglyak1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaksiutov4wins
AwayKruglyak6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKruglyak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaksiutov60%3 of 5
AwayKruglyak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paksiutov5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S2Paksiutov5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S3Paksiutov3Kruglyak7n = 10Kruglyak took 7 of 10
S4Paksiutov4Kruglyak5n = 9Kruglyak took 5 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaksiutovKruglyakP − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.837.9−3.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime61 / 193 vs 103 / 38431.6%26.8%61 / 193 vs 103 / 384Avg sets wonper match1.51.4per matchAvg pointsper match35.033.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KruglyakPaksiutov 2.25/Kruglyak 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Kruglyak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Paksiutov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMar 8 · 16:05S. Paksiutov209380V. Kruglyak331111113
WFeb 1 · 17:55S. Paksiutov4611118163V. Kruglyak397711141
LJan 4 · 16:05S. Paksiutov32119661V. Kruglyak3971111103
WDec 21 · 20:25S. Paksiutov4011711113V. Kruglyak29911451
WNov 23 · 13:35S. Paksiutov351211663V. Kruglyak331091131
LNov 9 · 19:25S. Paksiutov28611561V. Kruglyak3811511113
LSep 28 · 13:05S. Paksiutov26611451V. Kruglyak3711411113
LSep 14 · 14:35S. Paksiutov3611117252V. Kruglyak4359111173
LAug 31 · 13:35S. Paksiutov401191191V. Kruglyak4413119113
WJul 7 · 17:05S. Paksiutov45651211113V. Kruglyak44111110752
S. Paksiutov10
LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153LJun 28 · 14:25V. Reva1.5081111113S. Paksiutov2.50119961LMay 10 · 12:55S. Paksiutov7.508760I. Elfemov1.071111113
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120WAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113
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