TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12384655
Played Aug 9Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12147111151214––
Hennadii Buianover
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:01 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Hennadii Buianover below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 86 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 61.7%
86 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 10–23 Hennadii Buianover Serhii Paksiutov has won 10 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:01What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Buianover
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-23 in 33
Buianover
Correct
gap of 13 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paksiutov 1086 vs Buianover 1174
Buianover
Correct
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paksiutov 20% vs Buianover 0%
Paksiutov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paksiutov 30% vs Buianover 10%
Paksiutov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paksiutov -4 · Buianover -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Buianover) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Buianover form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 2.25 / Buianover 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Buianover)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12384655
Paksiutov2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog21% won 8 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back16% 3 of 19
Buianover1.57
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 26 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaksiutov3wins
AwayBuianover7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaksiutov50%2 of 4
AwayBuianover83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paksiutov4Buianover6n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S2Paksiutov5Buianover5n = 10split evenly
S3Paksiutov5Buianover5n = 10split evenly
S4Paksiutov3Buianover5n = 8Buianover took 5 of 8
S5Paksiutov1Buianover3n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaksiutovBuianoverP − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.941.0−0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovBuianoverBasisWin rate · lifetime36 / 114 vs 149 / 37131.6%40.2%36 / 114 vs 149 / 371Avg sets wonper match1.51.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverPaksiutov 2.25/Buianover 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Buianover won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov4212711121H. Buianover4414115143
WJun 28 · 18:25S. Paksiutov538121111113H. Buianover4411146672
LMay 10 · 06:55S. Paksiutov35611991H. Buianover4111811113
LMay 3 · 15:35S. Paksiutov2571170H. Buianover351113113
LMar 8 · 20:05S. Paksiutov39211101152H. Buianover44112128113
WJan 4 · 17:05S. Paksiutov49151011133H. Buianover3913123111
LDec 21 · 16:55S. Paksiutov45111110942H. Buianover48861211113
LNov 30 · 16:55S. Paksiutov501111810102H. Buianover50691112123
LNov 23 · 19:05S. Paksiutov38781491H. Buianover44111112103
WNov 9 · 16:25S. Paksiutov331111113H. Buianover218490
S. Paksiutov10
LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153LJun 28 · 14:25V. Reva1.5081111113S. Paksiutov2.50119961LMay 10 · 12:55S. Paksiutov7.508760I. Elfemov1.071111113
H. Buianover10
LSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113WSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192LSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941LSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113
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