TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392833
Played Aug 10Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012119811611––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:21 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kruglyak to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 78 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Volodymyr Kruglyak at 58.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 51–28 Volodymyr Kruglyak Volodymyr Kruglyak has won 28 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:21What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Buianover
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-28 in 79
Buianover
Wrong
gap of 23 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1188 vs Kruglyak 1124
Buianover
Wrong
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 40% vs Kruglyak 20%
Buianover
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 20% vs Kruglyak 40%
Kruglyak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover -1 · Kruglyak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Buianover) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 1.57 / Kruglyak 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Buianover)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12392833
Buianover1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 28 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 22 of 29
Kruglyak2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 29 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover7wins
AwayKruglyak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover100%5 of 5
AwayKruglyak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S2Buianover5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S3Buianover5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S4Buianover5Kruglyak2n = 7Buianover took 5 of 7
S5Buianover3Kruglyak1n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverKruglyakB − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.1+1.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 373 vs 80 / 26740.5%30%151 / 373 vs 80 / 267Avg sets wonper match1.81.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.134.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverBuianover 1.57/Kruglyak 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.9%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kruglyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover371112143V. Kruglyak29710120
WJul 27 · 16:35H. Buianover46851111113V. Kruglyak4611118882
WJul 23 · 19:35H. Buianover3811115113V. Kruglyak35981171
WJul 13 · 14:35H. Buianover4581111153V. Kruglyak341137131
LJun 28 · 13:55H. Buianover259880V. Kruglyak331111113
WJun 15 · 14:35H. Buianover4211119113V. Kruglyak34771191
WJun 4 · 18:05H. Buianover521111109113V. Kruglyak4669121182
WMay 31 · 12:35H. Buianover501112115113V. Kruglyak4431481182
LMay 28 · 15:05H. Buianover4569131162V. Kruglyak511111117113
LMay 4 · 14:35H. Buianover3015870V. Kruglyak391711113
H. Buianover10
LSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113WSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192LSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941LSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120LAug 9 · 14:35A. Sydorenko1.1791111113V. Kruglyak4.50115581WAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113
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