TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12392806
Played Aug 10Finished
Viktor Leonov
Home
1.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118116117––––
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
6.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Leonov above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 72.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Leonov 19–1 Volodymyr Kruglyak Volodymyr Kruglyak has won 1 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Leonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-1 in 20
Leonov
Correct
gap of 18 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Leonov 1378 vs Kruglyak 1145
Leonov
Correct
both rated, 233 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonov 60% vs Kruglyak 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonov 70% vs Kruglyak 50%
Leonov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonov -1 · Kruglyak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 95% — Strong (leans Leonov) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonov 1.10 / Kruglyak 6.50
Signal prob.95% / 5%
Edge (Leonov)+9.5pp
Setka Cup · #12392806
Leonov1.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 28 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it79% 19 of 24
Kruglyak6.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog29% won 29 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back15% 9 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 44
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLeonov9wins
AwayKruglyak1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLeonov leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLeonov88.9%8 of 9
AwayKruglyakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Leonov9Kruglyak1n = 10Leonov took 9 of 10
S2Leonov8Kruglyak2n = 10Leonov took 8 of 10
S3Leonov7Kruglyak3n = 10Leonov took 7 of 10
S4Leonov4Kruglyak2n = 6Leonov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLeonovKruglyakL − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.528.9+9.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonovKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 121 vs 81 / 26763.6%30.3%77 / 121 vs 81 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.31.5per matchAvg pointsper match36.734.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovLeonov 1.10/Kruglyak 6.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
95%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 23 · 14:05V. Leonov331111113V. Kruglyak198560
LJul 7 · 16:35V. Leonov4511811872V. Kruglyak48811711113
WJun 28 · 14:55V. Leonov4211119113V. Kruglyak31581171
WMar 8 · 19:35V. Leonov4112117113V. Kruglyak341051181
WDec 29 · 13:35V. Leonov341211113V. Kruglyak2610790
WOct 2 · 19:05V. Leonov4011117113V. Kruglyak28481151
WSep 24 · 19:05V. Leonov331111113V. Kruglyak147250
WSep 3 · 12:35V. Leonov44116115113V. Kruglyak3981151142
WAug 31 · 15:05V. Leonov4071111113V. Kruglyak28114851
WJul 24 · 17:05V. Leonov331111113V. Kruglyak228680
V. Leonov10
WSep 9 · 18:35V. Leonov1.531311113A. Sydorenko2.3811560WSep 9 · 17:05V. Leonov1.28126611113V. Reva3.50101111612WSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941WSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120LAug 9 · 14:35A. Sydorenko1.1791111113V. Kruglyak4.50115581WAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113
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