TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122151
Played Sep 13Finished
Vadym Melnyk
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 8
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111210118711119
Maksym Karelov
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:56 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Karelov to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVadym Melnyk above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Maksym Karelov at 64.5%
98 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Melnyk 1–1 Maksym Karelov Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:56What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Karelov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Melnyk 900 vs Karelov 1130
Karelov
Wrong
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnyk 0% vs Karelov 40%
Karelov
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnyk 10% vs Karelov 30%
Karelov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnyk -5 · Karelov -1
Melnyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Karelov) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (40%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnyk 3.00 / Karelov 1.36
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Karelov)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122151
Melnyk3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog12% won 4 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Karelov1.36
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite41% won 14 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it60% 12 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMelnyk1wins
AwayKarelov1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMelnykKarelovM − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match45.550.0−4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 41 vs 38 / 10512.2%36.2%5 / 41 vs 38 / 105Avg sets wonper match1.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match30.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelovMelnyk 3.00/Karelov 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.8%
Karelov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 16 · 12:35V. Melnyk44111241252M. Karelov526101114113
WJul 13 · 13:05V. Melnyk47117115133M. Karelov48811711112
V. Melnyk10
LSep 13 · 14:05V. Melnyk4.33211371V. Lukianevych1.2011411103LSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LJul 23 · 19:05V. Melnyk3.006960V. Lukianevych1.361111113LJul 23 · 17:05V. Leonov1.301111113V. Melnyk3.409650LJul 23 · 16:05V. Melnyk3.7564111192V. Kruglyak1.25111178113LJul 23 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.0611118113V. Melnyk8.00661181LJul 23 · 13:35V. Melnyk4.5081341152H. Buianover1.171111118113LJul 16 · 19:05V. Reva1.06117611113V. Melnyk8.0071111712WJul 16 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.33151071182V. Melnyk3.251312116113LJul 16 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.05411117113V. Melnyk8.5011471112
M. Karelov10
LSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113LSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392
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