TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12284730
Played Jul 23Finished
Vadym Melnyk
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611411117118911
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:02 and never touched — 75.0% is still 75.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Kruglyak to win
75.0%
75.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadym Melnyk above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 89 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Volodymyr Kruglyak at 75.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Melnyk 0–5 Volodymyr Kruglyak Vadym Melnyk has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:02What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kruglyak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Kruglyak
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnyk 934 vs Kruglyak 1097
Kruglyak
Correct
both rated, 162 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnyk 20% vs Kruglyak 40%
Kruglyak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnyk 20% vs Kruglyak 40%
Kruglyak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnyk -3 · Kruglyak -2
Melnyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Kruglyak) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnyk 3.75 / Kruglyak 1.25
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Kruglyak)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12284730
Melnyk3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog16% won 5 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Kruglyak1.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMelnyk0wins
AwayKruglyak5wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKruglyak leads 5–0, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKruglyak100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnyk2Kruglyak3n = 5Kruglyak took 3 of 5
S2Melnyk1Kruglyak4n = 5Kruglyak took 4 of 5
S3Melnyk1Kruglyak4n = 5Kruglyak took 4 of 5
S4Melnyk2Kruglyak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMelnykKruglyakM − KBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match31.242.2−11.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 37 vs 78 / 26513.5%29.4%5 / 37 vs 78 / 265Avg sets wonper match1.21.5per matchAvg pointsper match31.634.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KruglyakMelnyk 3.75/Kruglyak 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79%
Kruglyak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kruglyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJul 23 · 16:05V. Melnyk4164111192V. Kruglyak48111178113
LJul 13 · 17:35V. Melnyk3711471142V. Kruglyak48711118113
LApr 29 · 15:35V. Melnyk184770V. Kruglyak331111113
LApr 22 · 16:35V. Melnyk28411671V. Kruglyak4011711113
LApr 15 · 17:35V. Melnyk32119571V. Kruglyak4291111113
V. Melnyk10
LSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LJul 23 · 19:05V. Melnyk3.006960V. Lukianevych1.361111113LJul 23 · 17:05V. Leonov1.301111113V. Melnyk3.409650LJul 23 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.0611118113V. Melnyk8.00661181LJul 23 · 13:35V. Melnyk4.5081341152H. Buianover1.171111118113LJul 16 · 19:05V. Reva1.06117611113V. Melnyk8.0071111712WJul 16 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.33151071182V. Melnyk3.251312116113LJul 16 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.05411117113V. Melnyk8.5011471112LJul 16 · 14:35H. Buianover1.1791111113V. Melnyk4.50117571LJul 16 · 12:35M. Karelov1.406101114113V. Melnyk2.75111241252
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120LAug 9 · 14:35A. Sydorenko1.1791111113V. Kruglyak4.50115581
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