TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12284648
Played Jul 23Finished
Viktor Leonov
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119116115––––
Vadym Melnyk
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:50 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeViktor Leonov to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingViktor Leonov above · Vadym Melnyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Viktor Leonov at 68.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Viktor Leonov 1–0 Vadym Melnyk Vadym Melnyk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Leonov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Leonov 1341 vs Melnyk 929
Leonov
Correct
both rated, 412 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Leonov 60% vs Melnyk 20%
Leonov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Leonov 80% vs Melnyk 20%
Leonov
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Leonov +2 · Melnyk -4
Melnyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Leonov) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonov form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLeonov 1.30 / Melnyk 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Leonov)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12284648
Leonov1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 19 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Melnyk3.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog16% won 5 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back5% 1 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeLeonov1wins
AwayMelnyk0wins
Leonov leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricLeonovMelnykL − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match33.020.0+13.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLeonovMelnykBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 116 vs 5 / 3866.4%13.2%77 / 116 vs 5 / 38Avg sets wonper match2.31.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.931.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonovLeonov 1.30/Melnyk 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Leonov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Leonov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 23 · 17:05V. Leonov331111113V. Melnyk209650
V. Leonov10
WSep 9 · 18:35V. Leonov1.531311113A. Sydorenko2.3811560WSep 9 · 17:05V. Leonov1.28126611113V. Reva3.50101111612WSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941WSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832LSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113WSep 2 · 17:35V. Leonov1.40771111113M. Karelov2.7511119562LSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113WSep 2 · 15:05V. Leonov1.301111133V. Reva3.4037110LSep 2 · 13:05V. Leonov1.445111041A. Sydorenko2.6311512113
V. Melnyk10
LSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LJul 23 · 19:05V. Melnyk3.006960V. Lukianevych1.361111113LJul 23 · 16:05V. Melnyk3.7564111192V. Kruglyak1.25111178113LJul 23 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.0611118113V. Melnyk8.00661181LJul 23 · 13:35V. Melnyk4.5081341152H. Buianover1.171111118113LJul 16 · 19:05V. Reva1.06117611113V. Melnyk8.0071111712WJul 16 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.33151071182V. Melnyk3.251312116113LJul 16 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.05411117113V. Melnyk8.5011471112LJul 16 · 14:35H. Buianover1.1791111113V. Melnyk4.50117571LJul 16 · 12:35M. Karelov1.406101114113V. Melnyk2.75111241252
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