TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122197
Played Sep 13Finished
Vadym Melnyk
Home
4.33
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
211114311710––
Valerii Lukianevych
Away
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:05 and never touched — 78.7% is still 78.7%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
78.7%
78.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVadym Melnyk above · Valerii Lukianevych below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 7-10
Point 59 set 4, 7-10 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 78.7%
59 points played in total.
H2H Vadym Melnyk 3–4 Valerii Lukianevych Vadym Melnyk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnyk 908 vs Lukianevych 1313
Lukianevych
Correct
both rated, 405 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnyk 0% vs Lukianevych 60%
Lukianevych
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnyk 10% vs Lukianevych 70%
Lukianevych
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnyk -5 · Lukianevych +1
Melnyk
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Lukianevych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukianevych form (60%) is below what odds imply (83%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnyk 4.33 / Lukianevych 1.20
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Lukianevych)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122197
Melnyk4.33
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog12% won 4 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Lukianevych1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 73 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMelnyk3wins
AwayLukianevych4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderLukianevych leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayLukianevych75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnyk3Lukianevych4n = 7Lukianevych took 4 of 7
S2Melnyk5Lukianevych2n = 7Melnyk took 5 of 7
S3Melnyk1Lukianevych6n = 7Lukianevych took 6 of 7
S4Melnyk2Lukianevych4n = 6Lukianevych took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMelnykLukianevychM − LBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.137.6−1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykLukianevychBasisWin rate · lifetime5 / 40 vs 202 / 40212.5%50.3%5 / 40 vs 202 / 402Avg sets wonper match1.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match30.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychMelnyk 4.33/Lukianevych 1.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.7%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 23 · 19:05V. Melnyk216960V. Lukianevych331111113
WJul 16 · 18:05V. Melnyk531312116113V. Lukianevych51151071182
WJul 13 · 18:35V. Melnyk3811115113V. Lukianevych28381161
WApr 22 · 18:35V. Melnyk4311129113V. Lukianevych322101191
LApr 15 · 15:35V. Melnyk377111091V. Lukianevych4111712113
LApr 8 · 18:05V. Melnyk30116671V. Lukianevych3741111113
LFeb 26 · 16:53V. Melnyk31911381V. Lukianevych4111811113
V. Melnyk10
LSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LJul 23 · 19:05V. Melnyk3.006960V. Lukianevych1.361111113LJul 23 · 17:05V. Leonov1.301111113V. Melnyk3.409650LJul 23 · 16:05V. Melnyk3.7564111192V. Kruglyak1.25111178113LJul 23 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.0611118113V. Melnyk8.00661181LJul 23 · 13:35V. Melnyk4.5081341152H. Buianover1.171111118113LJul 16 · 19:05V. Reva1.06117611113V. Melnyk8.0071111712WJul 16 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.33151071182V. Melnyk3.251312116113LJul 16 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.05411117113V. Melnyk8.5011471112LJul 16 · 14:35H. Buianover1.1791111113V. Melnyk4.50117571
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113LSep 9 · 19:05V. Reva1.731111113V. Lukianevych2.005740WSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.5011114113V. Lukianevych2.50961191WSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113LSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272WJul 23 · 19:05V. Melnyk3.006960V. Lukianevych1.361111113LJul 16 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.33151071182V. Melnyk3.251312116113
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