TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121937
Played Sep 13Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114116115––––
Serhii Paksiutov
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Serhii Paksiutov below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 48 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 62.4%
48 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 23–10 Serhii Paksiutov Serhii Paksiutov has won 10 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Buianover
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-10 in 33
Buianover
Correct
gap of 13 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1243 vs Paksiutov 1059
Buianover
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 20% vs Paksiutov 0%
Buianover
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 30% vs Paksiutov 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover -1 · Paksiutov -5
Paksiutov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Buianover)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Paksiutov form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 1.53 / Paksiutov 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Buianover)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13121937
Buianover1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 26 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Paksiutov2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog18% won 7 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover7wins
AwayPaksiutov3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover83.3%5 of 6
AwayPaksiutov50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover6Paksiutov4n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S2Buianover5Paksiutov5n = 10split evenly
S3Buianover5Paksiutov5n = 10split evenly
S4Buianover5Paksiutov3n = 8Buianover took 5 of 8
S5Buianover3Paksiutov1n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverPaksiutovB − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.040.9+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverPaksiutovBasisWin rate · lifetime149 / 379 vs 31 / 10139.3%30.7%149 / 379 vs 31 / 101Avg sets wonper match1.71.5per matchAvg pointsper match35.835.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverBuianover 1.53/Paksiutov 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Buianover won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 18:35H. Buianover4414115143S. Paksiutov4212711121
LJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover4411146672S. Paksiutov538121111113
WMay 10 · 06:55H. Buianover4111811113S. Paksiutov35611991
WMay 3 · 15:35H. Buianover351113113S. Paksiutov2571170
WMar 8 · 20:05H. Buianover44112128113S. Paksiutov39211101152
LJan 4 · 17:05H. Buianover3913123111S. Paksiutov49151011133
WDec 21 · 16:55H. Buianover48861211113S. Paksiutov45111110942
WNov 30 · 16:55H. Buianover50691112123S. Paksiutov501111810102
WNov 23 · 19:05H. Buianover44111112103S. Paksiutov38781491
LNov 9 · 16:25H. Buianover218490S. Paksiutov331111113
H. Buianover10
LSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113WSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192LSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941LSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113WSep 2 · 15:35H. Buianover1.731131111113M. Karelov2.0011151392LSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123
S. Paksiutov10
LSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113LJun 28 · 15:25S. Paksiutov2.25110130M. Karelov1.571112153
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