TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13137344
Played Sep 16Finished
Andrii Sydorenko 1979
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171171412––––
Maksym Karelov
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:36 and never touched — 79.4% is still 79.4%
Graded at full timeAndrii Sydorenko 1979 to win
79.4%
79.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Sydorenko 1979 above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 62 set 3, 14-12 — our read held Andrii Sydorenko 1979 at 79.4%
62 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Sydorenko 1979 14–4 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 4 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:36What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Sydorenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-4 in 18
Sydorenko
Correct
gap of 10 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sydorenko 1364 vs Karelov 1065
Sydorenko
Correct
both rated, 299 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sydorenko 60% vs Karelov 0%
Sydorenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sydorenko 60% vs Karelov 20%
Sydorenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sydorenko -2 · Karelov -5
Karelov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Sydorenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (0%) is below what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSydorenko 1.25 / Karelov 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Sydorenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13137344
Sydorenko1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite72% won 103 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it92% 48 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it82% 67 of 82
Karelov3.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 21 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSydorenko9wins
AwayKarelov1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSydorenko leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSydorenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayKarelov0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sydorenko7Karelov3n = 10Sydorenko took 7 of 10
S2Sydorenko7Karelov3n = 10Sydorenko took 7 of 10
S3Sydorenko6Karelov4n = 10Sydorenko took 6 of 10
S4Sydorenko4Karelov3n = 7Sydorenko took 4 of 7
S5Sydorenko4Karelov0n = 4Sydorenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSydorenkoKarelovS − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.335.0+5.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSydorenkoKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 320 vs 38 / 10965%34.9%208 / 320 vs 38 / 109Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SydorenkoSydorenko 1.25/Karelov 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Sydorenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sydorenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko26115371M. Karelov3961111113
WSep 2 · 19:35A. Sydorenko541111129113M. Karelov3948141122
WSep 1 · 16:35A. Sydorenko351311113M. Karelov2211740
WAug 27 · 14:05A. Sydorenko331111113M. Karelov238960
WAug 19 · 13:05A. Sydorenko3961111113M. Karelov27117631
WAug 12 · 17:33A. Sydorenko541281211113M. Karelov50141110962
WAug 12 · 12:35A. Sydorenko46671111113M. Karelov4511118962
WAug 9 · 13:35A. Sydorenko3611122113M. Karelov349101141
WAug 5 · 13:05A. Sydorenko44111138113M. Karelov4589111162
WJul 28 · 17:35A. Sydorenko361111143M. Karelov2686120
A. Sydorenko10
LSep 16 · 12:35A. Sydorenko2.631110861V. Leonov1.4441211113LSep 9 · 18:35V. Leonov1.531311113A. Sydorenko2.3811560WSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192WSep 9 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.5011114113V. Lukianevych2.50961191WSep 9 · 15:05A. Sydorenko1.67111112113V. Reva2.10381451LSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113WSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113WSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272LSep 2 · 16:05V. Reva2.10111156113A. Sydorenko1.6743111192WSep 2 · 14:05H. Buianover3.759411101A. Sydorenko1.2511113123
M. Karelov10
LSep 16 · 13:05V. Lukianevych1.331111113M. Karelov3.257720LSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113LSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192LSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113
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