TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122116
Played Sep 13Finished
Maksym Karelov
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118611118811
Valerii Lukianevych
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:54 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Karelov above · Valerii Lukianevych below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 72.8%
94 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Karelov 6–12 Valerii Lukianevych Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:54What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Lukianevych
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karelov 1076 vs Lukianevych 1316
Lukianevych
Correct
both rated, 241 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karelov 20% vs Lukianevych 60%
Lukianevych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karelov 30% vs Lukianevych 70%
Lukianevych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karelov -3 · Lukianevych +1
Karelov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Lukianevych) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukianevych form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarelov 3.25 / Lukianevych 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Lukianevych)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122116
Karelov3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 21 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back23% 7 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Lukianevych1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 73 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarelov3wins
AwayLukianevych7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarelov33.3%2 of 6
AwayLukianevych75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karelov6Lukianevych4n = 10Karelov took 6 of 10
S2Karelov2Lukianevych8n = 10Lukianevych took 8 of 10
S3Karelov3Lukianevych7n = 10Lukianevych took 7 of 10
S4Karelov1Lukianevych6n = 7Lukianevych took 6 of 7
S5Karelov3Lukianevych2n = 5Karelov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelovLukianevychK − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.142.2−4.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelovLukianevychBasisWin rate · lifetime38 / 107 vs 204 / 40535.5%50.4%38 / 107 vs 204 / 405Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychKarelov 3.25/Lukianevych 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov30910110V. Lukianevych361112133
LSep 2 · 14:35M. Karelov2171040V. Lukianevych341112113
LSep 1 · 18:35M. Karelov411117581V. Lukianevych4651911113
WAug 30 · 16:25M. Karelov50891111113V. Lukianevych4211115782
LAug 27 · 13:05M. Karelov26117621V. Lukianevych4181111113
LAug 19 · 14:05M. Karelov47118111072V. Lukianevych49811712113
WAug 12 · 14:05M. Karelov48111259113V. Lukianevych44510111172
LAug 10 · 18:35M. Karelov4011118552V. Lukianevych45571111113
LAug 5 · 14:05M. Karelov2761470V. Lukianevych381116113
WJul 28 · 14:35M. Karelov51118118133V. Lukianevych47611811112
M. Karelov10
LSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192LSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832WSep 9 · 13:05A. Sydorenko1.22115371M. Karelov4.0061111113LSep 2 · 19:35M. Karelov4.0048141122A. Sydorenko1.221111129113
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 13 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.36111183V. Kruglyak3.008810LSep 13 · 16:05S. Paksiutov2.75613411113V. Lukianevych1.40111111662WSep 13 · 14:05V. Melnyk4.33211371V. Lukianevych1.2011411103WSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113LSep 9 · 19:05V. Reva1.731111113V. Lukianevych2.005740WSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.5011114113V. Lukianevych2.50961191WSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.