TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121775
Played Sep 13Finished
Serhii Paksiutov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111311411116116
Valerii Lukianevych
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Paksiutov above · Valerii Lukianevych below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 90 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 67.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Paksiutov 11–27 Valerii Lukianevych Serhii Paksiutov has won 11 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:50What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Lukianevych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-27 in 38
Lukianevych
Wrong
gap of 16 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paksiutov 1040 vs Lukianevych 1318
Lukianevych
Wrong
both rated, 278 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paksiutov 0% vs Lukianevych 60%
Lukianevych
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paksiutov 30% vs Lukianevych 70%
Lukianevych
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Paksiutov -5 · Lukianevych +2
Paksiutov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Lukianevych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukianevych form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPaksiutov 2.75 / Lukianevych 1.40
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Lukianevych)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13121775
Paksiutov2.75
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog18% won 7 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back14% 4 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Lukianevych1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 73 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it95% 40 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePaksiutov4wins
AwayLukianevych6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaksiutov60%3 of 5
AwayLukianevych80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paksiutov5Lukianevych5n = 10split evenly
S2Paksiutov5Lukianevych5n = 10split evenly
S3Paksiutov4Lukianevych6n = 10Lukianevych took 6 of 10
S4Paksiutov5Lukianevych2n = 8Paksiutov took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPaksiutovLukianevychP − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.238.5+0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaksiutovLukianevychBasisWin rate · lifetime31 / 102 vs 203 / 40330.4%50.4%31 / 102 vs 203 / 403Avg sets wonper match1.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychPaksiutov 2.75/Lukianevych 1.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Paksiutov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 10 · 08:55S. Paksiutov5189111492V. Lukianevych521111712113
LMay 3 · 13:35S. Paksiutov50119812102V. Lukianevych528111110123
LApr 26 · 15:25S. Paksiutov439111581V. Lukianevych4711817113
LApr 5 · 19:35S. Paksiutov229760V. Lukianevych331111113
LMar 29 · 15:35S. Paksiutov34118961V. Lukianevych409111193
LMar 22 · 16:05S. Paksiutov31661271V. Lukianevych3911111072
WMar 8 · 17:05S. Paksiutov341112113V. Lukianevych2351080
WFeb 1 · 20:55S. Paksiutov3911116113V. Lukianevych33971161
WJan 4 · 20:05S. Paksiutov45121111113V. Lukianevych32145851
WDec 21 · 18:25S. Paksiutov4312119113V. Lukianevych341091141
S. Paksiutov10
LSep 13 · 15:05H. Buianover1.531111113S. Paksiutov2.384650LSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LAug 9 · 18:35S. Paksiutov2.2512711121H. Buianover1.5714115143LAug 9 · 17:05S. Paksiutov2.63961161M. Karelov1.4411117113LAug 9 · 15:35S. Paksiutov4.001161111102A. Sydorenko1.22811139123LAug 9 · 14:05S. Paksiutov2.75511481V. Reva1.4011811113LAug 9 · 12:35S. Paksiutov1.839490V. Kruglyak1.831111113WJun 28 · 20:25S. Paksiutov2.2591111113V. Kruglyak1.57116881WJun 28 · 18:25H. Buianover1.5011146672S. Paksiutov2.508121111113WJun 28 · 16:25V. Leonov1.0811116592S. Paksiutov7.00771111113
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 13 · 14:05V. Melnyk4.33211371V. Lukianevych1.2011411103WSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113LSep 9 · 19:05V. Reva1.731111113V. Lukianevych2.005740WSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.5011114113V. Lukianevych2.50961191WSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 2 · 19:05V. Reva1.73111112982V. Lukianevych2.00871411113LSep 2 · 18:05A. Sydorenko1.441191110113V. Lukianevych2.6331171272WSep 2 · 16:35V. Leonov2.2061470V. Lukianevych1.611116113
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