TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13136784
Played Sep 16Finished
Valerii Lukianevych
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117112––––
Maksym Karelov
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:26 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeValerii Lukianevych to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValerii Lukianevych above · Maksym Karelov below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 49 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Valerii Lukianevych at 75.3%
49 points played in total.
H2H Valerii Lukianevych 13–6 Maksym Karelov Maksym Karelov has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:26What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lukianevych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-6 in 19
Lukianevych
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukianevych 1321 vs Karelov 1071
Lukianevych
Correct
both rated, 250 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukianevych 80% vs Karelov 20%
Lukianevych
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukianevych 70% vs Karelov 30%
Lukianevych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukianevych +2 · Karelov -4
Karelov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Lukianevych)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karelov form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukianevych 1.33 / Karelov 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Lukianevych)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13136784
Lukianevych1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 75 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it83% 53 of 64
Karelov3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 21 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukianevych8wins
AwayKarelov2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLukianevych leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukianevych80%4 of 5
AwayKarelov20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukianevych5Karelov5n = 10split evenly
S2Lukianevych7Karelov3n = 10Lukianevych took 7 of 10
S3Lukianevych8Karelov2n = 10Lukianevych took 8 of 10
S4Lukianevych5Karelov2n = 7Lukianevych took 5 of 7
S5Lukianevych3Karelov2n = 5Lukianevych took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukianevychKarelovL − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.437.5+4.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukianevychKarelovBasisWin rate · lifetime205 / 406 vs 38 / 10850.5%35.2%205 / 406 vs 38 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LukianevychLukianevych 1.33/Karelov 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Lukianevych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lukianevych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 13 · 19:35V. Lukianevych49118118113M. Karelov4591161182
WSep 9 · 18:05V. Lukianevych361112133M. Karelov30910110
WSep 2 · 14:35V. Lukianevych341112113M. Karelov2171040
WSep 1 · 18:35V. Lukianevych4651911113M. Karelov411117581
LAug 30 · 16:25V. Lukianevych4211115782M. Karelov50891111113
WAug 27 · 13:05V. Lukianevych4181111113M. Karelov26117621
WAug 19 · 14:05V. Lukianevych49811712113M. Karelov47118111072
LAug 12 · 14:05V. Lukianevych44510111172M. Karelov48111259113
WAug 10 · 18:35V. Lukianevych45571111113M. Karelov4011118552
WAug 5 · 14:05V. Lukianevych381116113M. Karelov2761470
V. Lukianevych10
WSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113WSep 13 · 18:05V. Lukianevych1.36111183V. Kruglyak3.008810LSep 13 · 16:05S. Paksiutov2.75613411113V. Lukianevych1.40111111662WSep 13 · 14:05V. Melnyk4.33211371V. Lukianevych1.2011411103WSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113LSep 9 · 19:05V. Reva1.731111113V. Lukianevych2.005740WSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133LSep 9 · 16:35A. Sydorenko1.5011114113V. Lukianevych2.50961191WSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 12:35V. Leonov2.38913371V. Lukianevych1.53111111113
M. Karelov10
LSep 16 · 14:05A. Sydorenko1.251111143M. Karelov3.7577120LSep 13 · 19:35M. Karelov3.2591161182V. Lukianevych1.33118118113LSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760LSep 13 · 15:35V. Melnyk3.00812117113M. Karelov1.36111081192LSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 13:35S. Paksiutov3.00111212782M. Karelov1.3613101011103LSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 18:05M. Karelov2.75910110V. Lukianevych1.401112133WSep 9 · 16:05V. Reva1.537870M. Karelov2.381111113LSep 9 · 14:05V. Leonov1.36751311113M. Karelov3.00111111832
Upcoming Matches
V. Lukianevych
M. Karelov
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.