TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121762
Played Sep 13Finished
Hennadii Buianover
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711711113119811
Volodymyr Kruglyak
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeHennadii Buianover to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingHennadii Buianover above · Volodymyr Kruglyak below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Hennadii Buianover at 57.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Hennadii Buianover 51–29 Volodymyr Kruglyak Volodymyr Kruglyak has won 29 of their 80 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Buianover
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-29 in 80
Buianover
Wrong
gap of 22 in 80, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Buianover 1261 vs Kruglyak 1176
Buianover
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Buianover 40% vs Kruglyak 60%
Kruglyak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Buianover 40% vs Kruglyak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Buianover +1 · Kruglyak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Buianover) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kruglyak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBuianover 1.67 / Kruglyak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Buianover)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13121762
Buianover1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 26 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Kruglyak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog26% won 23 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back17% 9 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBuianover7wins
AwayKruglyak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBuianover leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBuianover100%5 of 5
AwayKruglyak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Buianover5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S2Buianover6Kruglyak4n = 10Buianover took 6 of 10
S3Buianover5Kruglyak5n = 10split evenly
S4Buianover5Kruglyak3n = 8Buianover took 5 of 8
S5Buianover3Kruglyak1n = 4Buianover took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBuianoverKruglyakB − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.539.5+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBuianoverKruglyakBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 380 vs 80 / 25439.5%31.5%150 / 380 vs 80 / 254Avg sets wonper match1.71.6per matchAvg pointsper match35.834.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BuianoverBuianover 1.67/Kruglyak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Buianover · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kruglyak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover351011861V. Kruglyak4312911113
WAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover371112143V. Kruglyak29710120
WJul 27 · 16:35H. Buianover46851111113V. Kruglyak4611118882
WJul 23 · 19:35H. Buianover3811115113V. Kruglyak35981171
WJul 13 · 14:35H. Buianover4581111153V. Kruglyak341137131
LJun 28 · 13:55H. Buianover259880V. Kruglyak331111113
WJun 15 · 14:35H. Buianover4211119113V. Kruglyak34771191
WJun 4 · 18:05H. Buianover521111109113V. Kruglyak4669121182
WMay 31 · 12:35H. Buianover501112115113V. Kruglyak4431481182
LMay 28 · 15:05H. Buianover4569131162V. Kruglyak511111117113
H. Buianover10
WSep 13 · 17:35H. Buianover1.501111113M. Karelov2.506760WSep 13 · 15:05H. Buianover1.531111113S. Paksiutov2.384650LSep 13 · 13:05H. Buianover2.75711591V. Lukianevych1.4011811113WSep 9 · 19:35H. Buianover1.671211113M. Karelov2.1010990LSep 9 · 17:35A. Sydorenko1.28911116113H. Buianover3.5011881192LSep 9 · 15:35V. Leonov1.1771111113H. Buianover4.50117941LSep 9 · 14:35H. Buianover2.38137381V. Lukianevych1.53111111113WSep 9 · 13:35V. Reva1.57101050H. Buianover2.251212113LSep 2 · 18:35H. Buianover4.50871141V. Leonov1.1711117113LSep 2 · 17:05H. Buianover2.102650V. Reva1.671111113
V. Kruglyak10
WSep 13 · 14:35M. Karelov2.634760V. Kruglyak1.441111113WSep 13 · 12:35V. Melnyk3.504870V. Kruglyak1.281111113LAug 10 · 19:05V. Leonov1.101111113V. Kruglyak6.508670LAug 10 · 18:05V. Reva1.2012136113V. Kruglyak4.3310111101WAug 10 · 16:35M. Karelov2.2010950V. Kruglyak1.611211113WAug 10 · 14:35H. Buianover1.571011861V. Kruglyak2.2512911113LAug 10 · 12:35V. Lukianevych1.36131211113V. Kruglyak3.001510661WAug 9 · 19:05M. Karelov2.201211761V. Kruglyak1.6114911113LAug 9 · 18:05V. Reva1.201111113V. Kruglyak4.338850LAug 9 · 16:35H. Buianover1.671112143V. Kruglyak2.10710120
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