TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13135803
Played Sep 16Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210114115––––
Cesta Havrda
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 53 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 15–13 Cesta Havrda Cesta Havrda has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:57What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Novotny
Correct
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1154 vs Havrda 1029
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Havrda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 30% vs Havrda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Havrda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.53 / Havrda 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Novotny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13135803
Novotny1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 45 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 37 of 47
Havrda2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 15 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back4% 1 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny7wins
AwayHavrda3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny100%3 of 3
AwayHavrda42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S2Novotny4Havrda6n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Novotny6Havrda4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Novotny6Havrda1n = 7Novotny took 6 of 7
S5Novotny3Havrda0n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyHavrdaN − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.5+2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 369 vs 104 / 24649.6%42.3%183 / 369 vs 104 / 246Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.53/Havrda 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny187470C. Havrda331111113
WJun 30 · 13:28L. Novotny4213711113C. Havrda291111431
WJun 30 · 12:00L. Novotny45711511113C. Havrda4111811472
WJun 23 · 09:30L. Novotny4011711113C. Havrda31811931
WJun 23 · 06:30L. Novotny48961111113C. Havrda3911116652
WJun 2 · 08:59L. Novotny47611811113C. Havrda4311511792
WJun 2 · 06:30L. Novotny4061112113C. Havrda301181011
LMay 11 · 11:30L. Novotny199460C. Havrda331111113
LApr 20 · 11:00L. Novotny34581561C. Havrda46111113113
WApr 2 · 06:00L. Novotny331111113C. Havrda207850
L. Novotny10
LSep 16 · 11:30J. Cernik1.83111111113L. Novotny1.83139751WSep 16 · 10:00L. Novotny1.57711116113J. Strnad2.2511141132WSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 12:00L. Novotny1.8381131192J. Cernik1.83117112113LSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191WSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352LSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961
C. Havrda10
LSep 16 · 10:30C. Havrda2.639840J. Cernik1.441111113WSep 9 · 13:30P. Serak1.4611760C. Havrda2.371311113WSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890WSep 9 · 11:30J. Stary1.67118391C. Havrda2.1091111113LSep 9 · 10:00C. Havrda2.2511811632P. Serak1.57811311113LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
C. Havrda
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