TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13126069
Played Sep 14Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117311112911
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 84 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 11–15 Jaromir Cernik Ladislav Novotny has won 11 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:52What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-15 in 26
Cernik
Correct
gap of 4 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1127 vs Cernik 1115
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 20% vs Cernik 40%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 30% vs Cernik 60%
Cernik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -1 · Cernik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.83 / Cernik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernik)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13126069
Novotny1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Cernik1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny7wins
AwayCernik3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny83.3%5 of 6
AwayCernik50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny6Cernik4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Novotny5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S3Novotny8Cernik2n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S4Novotny4Cernik3n = 7Novotny took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyCernikN − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.532.3+6.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 366 vs 363 / 79649.5%45.6%181 / 366 vs 363 / 796Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikNovotny 1.83/Cernik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 10:30L. Novotny33117961J. Cernik3961111113
WSep 10 · 06:30L. Novotny351111133J. Cernik2247110
WSep 1 · 06:00L. Novotny55911915113J. Cernik44115111342
WAug 28 · 10:30L. Novotny4211911113J. Cernik33711871
WAug 28 · 06:30L. Novotny3741111113J. Cernik30114691
LAug 15 · 08:00L. Novotny391361191J. Cernik4615119113
WJun 30 · 10:30L. Novotny331111113J. Cernik143380
WJun 30 · 06:00L. Novotny361114113J. Cernik2991280
WJun 13 · 08:00L. Novotny4211911113J. Cernik29911811
LMay 26 · 13:30L. Novotny336101161J. Cernik3711123113
L. Novotny10
WSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191WSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352LSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961LSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113WSep 10 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.83111171262L. Novotny1.83771114113LSep 10 · 07:30L. Novotny2.5012511572J. Srba1.501011511113
J. Cernik10
WSep 14 · 11:00L. Madle1.50981131J. Cernik2.5011118113WSep 14 · 10:30J. Cernik2.10551111113D. Mutl1.6711119772LSep 14 · 08:58J. Cernik1.837950D. Mutl1.831111113LSep 14 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.401411113J. Cernik2.7512660LSep 14 · 07:30J. Cernik1.808880J. Srba1.911111113WSep 14 · 06:30D. Mutl1.446890J. Cernik2.631111113WSep 10 · 13:30M. Smesny1.8011551162J. Cernik1.90611118113WSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113LSep 10 · 11:00M. Smesny1.83711119113J. Cernik1.8311831182WSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
J. Cernik
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.