TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13134176
Played Sep 16Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711111114611113
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 76 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 21–24 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Ladislav Novotny has won 21 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:47What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-24 in 45
Strnad
Wrong
gap of 3 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1147 vs Strnad 1040
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 40% vs Strnad 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 30% vs Strnad 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Strnad -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.57 / Strnad 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Novotny)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13134176
Novotny1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 45 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it79% 37 of 47
Strnad2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 26 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back15% 10 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny5wins
AwayStrnad5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny71.4%5 of 7
AwayStrnad100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny7Strnad3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S2Novotny8Strnad2n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S3Novotny5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S4Novotny4Strnad3n = 7Novotny took 4 of 7
S5Novotny0Strnad4n = 4Strnad took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyStrnadN − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.335.9+4.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 368 vs 147 / 36049.5%40.8%182 / 368 vs 147 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.57/Strnad 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 12:59L. Novotny50911121352J. Strnad521151015113
LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny49711714102J. Strnad511151112123
WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny4011117113J. Strnad25541151
WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny331111113J. Strnad196580
LAug 28 · 13:30L. Novotny4498111152J. Strnad45111166113
WAug 28 · 11:30L. Novotny381611113J. Strnad2614660
LAug 27 · 07:00L. Novotny4111117662J. Strnad43371111113
WAug 25 · 13:00L. Novotny4011117113J. Strnad32861171
LAug 25 · 10:00L. Novotny331110391J. Strnad4281211113
WJun 30 · 11:00L. Novotny351211123J. Strnad24104100
L. Novotny10
WSep 14 · 13:00L. Novotny1.701111123L. Madle2.0046100LSep 14 · 12:00L. Novotny1.8381131192J. Cernik1.83117112113LSep 14 · 11:30D. Mutl1.6111114113L. Novotny2.20561191WSep 14 · 10:00L. Novotny2.751111113L. Madle1.405890LSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352LSep 10 · 12:30M. Smesny1.531111113L. Novotny2.388870LSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:30J. Cernik2.1061111113L. Novotny1.67117961LSep 10 · 09:30L. Novotny2.637550J. Srba1.441111113WSep 10 · 08:30A. Hejduk1.83111171262L. Novotny1.83771114113
J. Strnad10
LSep 11 · 17:00J. Hyrsl1.5011115113J. Strnad2.45871181WSep 11 · 16:30J. Strnad2.3811912113R. Buric1.537111071LSep 11 · 15:00J. Strnad2.504690J. Hyrsl1.501111113LSep 11 · 14:00M. Vaclavik1.6181111123J. Strnad2.201198101WSep 10 · 12:59J. Strnad2.201151015113L. Novotny1.61911121352LSep 10 · 12:00J. Strnad3.40811871J. Cernik1.3011511113WSep 10 · 11:30L. Novotny1.50711714102J. Strnad2.501151112123LSep 10 · 10:00J. Strnad3.006880M. Smesny1.361111113LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153
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