TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104262
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Serak
Home
1.46
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113711611––––
Cesta Havrda
Away
2.37
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:16 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timePetr Serak to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Serak above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Petr Serak at 63.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Petr Serak 19–6 Cesta Havrda Cesta Havrda has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Serak beat Havrda 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:16What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (62%)
Serak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-6 in 25
Serak
Wrong
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serak 1093 vs Havrda 1035
Serak
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serak 80% vs Havrda 40%
Serak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serak 50% vs Havrda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Serak +4 · Havrda +2
Serak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Serak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerak 1.46 / Havrda 2.37
Signal prob.64% / 37%
Edge (Serak)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104262
Serak1.46
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 22 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it65% 15 of 23
Havrda2.37
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog21% won 12 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerak8wins
AwayHavrda2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSerak leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerak83.3%5 of 6
AwayHavrda25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serak6Havrda4n = 10Serak took 6 of 10
S2Serak5Havrda5n = 10split evenly
S3Serak5Havrda5n = 10split evenly
S4Serak4Havrda3n = 7Serak took 4 of 7
S5Serak5Havrda0n = 5Serak took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerakHavrdaS − HBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.434.9+5.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerakHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime69 / 177 vs 105 / 25139%41.8%69 / 177 vs 105 / 251Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerakSerak 1.46/Havrda 2.37
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.5%
Serak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 10:00P. Serak—811311113C. Havrda—11811632
WAug 12 · 09:30P. Serak—1112113C. Havrda—31060
WAug 12 · 06:30P. Serak—1111117113C. Havrda—71391162
WMar 16 · 07:30P. Serak—1111113C. Havrda—6640
WSep 9 · 11:00P. Serak—951111113C. Havrda—11118862
LAug 7 · 13:00P. Serak—11950C. Havrda—1311113
LAug 7 · 11:30P. Serak—1110361C. Havrda—71211113
WAug 6 · 09:04P. Serak—1181110113C. Havrda—41131292
WAug 6 · 08:30P. Serak—711711113C. Havrda—11511962
WJul 17 · 11:30P. Serak—11119113C. Havrda—271181
P. Serak10
WSep 9 · 12:30P. Serak1.5711114153J. Stary2.258511131WSep 9 · 11:00P. Serak3.0021111113P. Petr1.36114991WSep 9 · 10:00C. Havrda2.2511811632P. Serak1.57811311113WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113
C. Havrda10
WSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890WSep 9 · 11:30J. Stary1.67118391C. Havrda2.1091111113LSep 9 · 10:00C. Havrda2.2511811632P. Serak1.57811311113LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113
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