TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098840
Played Sep 9Finished
Petr Serak
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
211114119119––
Pavel Petr
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPetr Serak above · Pavel Petr below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Pavel Petr at 68.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Petr Serak 2–9 Pavel Petr Petr Serak has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Petr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-9 in 11
Petr
Wrong
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Serak 1069 vs Petr 1181
Petr
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Serak 60% vs Petr 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Serak 40% vs Petr 80%
Petr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Serak +2 · Petr +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Petr) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petr form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSerak 3.00 / Petr 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Petr)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098840
Serak3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog18% won 6 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Petr1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 27 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSerak1wins
AwayPetr9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPetr leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSerak20%1 of 5
AwayPetr100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Serak5Petr5n = 10split evenly
S2Serak6Petr4n = 10Serak took 6 of 10
S3Serak3Petr7n = 10Petr took 7 of 10
S4Serak1Petr6n = 7Petr took 6 of 7
S5Serak0Petr5n = 5Petr took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSerakPetrS − PBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.441.1−6.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSerakPetrBasisWin rate · lifetime67 / 175 vs 80 / 13438.3%59.7%67 / 175 vs 80 / 134Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrSerak 3.00/Petr 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.4%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Serak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 08:58P. Serak—8490P. Petr—1111113
LAug 21 · 06:30P. Serak—11118942P. Petr—881111113
LAug 11 · 11:00P. Serak—51211872P. Petr—1110711113
LJun 24 · 13:30P. Serak—111161032P. Petr—561112113
LJun 24 · 10:00P. Serak—71111772P. Petr—116911113
LMay 27 · 13:00P. Serak—149531P. Petr—121111113
LMay 27 · 10:00P. Serak—411881P. Petr—11311113
LApr 28 · 12:00P. Serak—3910P. Petr—1111113
WApr 10 · 09:30P. Serak—1311113P. Petr—11830
LApr 10 · 06:00P. Serak—11481192P. Petr—811119113
P. Serak10
WSep 9 · 12:30P. Serak1.5711114153J. Stary2.258511131WSep 9 · 10:00C. Havrda2.2511811632P. Serak1.57811311113WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942
P. Petr10
LSep 9 · 12:00C. Havrda2.001311113P. Petr1.7311890WSep 9 · 10:30P. Petr1.3351111113J. Stary3.25114381WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 09:30P. Petr1.9111129113J. Strnad1.807101161WAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr1.61111129113V. Kubat2.2079111172WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113
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