TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098842
Played Sep 9Finished
Pavel Petr
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511114113118––
Jiri Stary
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:20 and never touched — 61.9% is still 61.9%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
61.9%
61.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Petr above · Jiri Stary below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 64 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Petr at 61.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Petr 9–9 Jiri Stary Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Petr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petr 1175 vs Stary 1000
Petr
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petr 60% vs Stary 0%
Petr
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petr 70% vs Stary 40%
Petr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Petr +1 · Stary -5
Stary
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Petr) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stary form (0%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetr 1.33 / Stary 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Petr)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098842
Petr1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite69% won 27 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it84% 21 of 25
Stary3.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 17 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back32% 8 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetr7wins
AwayStary3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPetr leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetr71.4%5 of 7
AwayStary33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petr7Stary3n = 10Petr took 7 of 10
S2Petr5Stary5n = 10split evenly
S3Petr6Stary4n = 10Petr took 6 of 10
S4Petr5Stary2n = 7Petr took 5 of 7
S5Petr3Stary2n = 5Petr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetrStaryP − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.637.9+4.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetrStaryBasisWin rate · lifetime84 / 145 vs 50 / 12857.9%39.1%84 / 145 vs 50 / 128Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrPetr 1.33/Stary 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.7%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Petr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 11 · 10:30P. Petr—1111113J. Stary—5760
WJun 24 · 11:30P. Petr—11411113J. Stary—711891
WJun 9 · 10:00P. Petr—1111113J. Stary—5880
WMay 27 · 11:30P. Petr—1291011113J. Stary—101112772
LApr 28 · 13:30P. Petr—1197101J. Stary—81111123
LApr 28 · 10:30P. Petr—111491182J. Stary—516118113
WApr 10 · 08:30P. Petr—1141111113J. Stary—13119962
WMar 11 · 09:30P. Petr—712117113J. Stary—111071122
WFeb 16 · 07:00P. Petr—1711113J. Stary—15830
LDec 4 · 12:30P. Petr—61181192J. Stary—118119113
P. Petr10
WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 09:30P. Petr1.9111129113J. Strnad1.807101161WAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr1.61111129113V. Kubat2.2079111172WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113WAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113LAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390
J. Stary10
LAug 11 · 13:00P. Serak2.00131113153J. Stary1.7315711131LAug 11 · 12:30P. Serak1.571110511113J. Stary2.2571211872LAug 11 · 11:30J. Stary2.631111431J. Strnad1.4413911113LAug 11 · 10:30P. Petr1.501111113J. Stary2.505760LJun 30 · 13:29P. Serak1.911211113J. Stary1.8010960WJun 30 · 12:00P. Serak1.6712891192J. Stary2.101011112113LJun 30 · 11:00J. Koch1.7311147113J. Stary2.007121191WJun 30 · 10:30J. Stary1.6161113113J. Jira2.201181121WJun 24 · 13:00J. Koch1.44118991J. Stary2.6351111113WJun 24 · 12:30P. Serak1.6761111292J. Stary2.10115511113
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