Petr Serak vs Jiri Stary 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #12397720

Played Aug 11Finished

Petr Serak

Home

1.57

At publish

Lost last 4

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 4

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1171012511118117

Jiri Stary

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:22 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%

Graded at full time

Petr Serak to win

57.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingPetr Serak above · Jiri Stary below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 10-12

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 11-8

Set 5 · 11-7

Point 93 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Petr Serak at 57.9%

93 points played in total.

H2H Petr Serak 4–5 Jiri Stary Petr Serak has won 4 of their 9 meetings.

Last 9 · 4–5Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 16:22

What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.57 (59%)

Serak

Correct

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

4-5 in 9

—

Too close

gap of 1, under the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Serak 1026 vs Stary 1040

Stary

Wrong

both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Serak 20% vs Stary 20%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Serak 40% vs Stary 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Serak -4 · Stary -3

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Serak)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stary form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSerak 1.57 / Stary 2.25

Signal prob.58% / 42%

Edge (Serak)-1.0pp

Czech Liga Pro · #12397720

Serak1.57

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 4

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As favourite49% won 17 of 35

Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12

Up 1–0, closes it60% 12 of 20

Stary2.25

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

10%takes the first set · 1 of 10

As underdog38% won 18 of 47

Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27

Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 9 meetings

HomeSerak4wins

AwayStary5wins

5 of 9 to a deciderStary leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSerak50%3 of 6

AwayStary66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Serak6Stary3n = 9Serak took 6 of 9

S2Serak6Stary3n = 9Serak took 6 of 9

S3Serak6Stary3n = 9Serak took 6 of 9

S4Serak4Stary4n = 8split evenly

S5Serak0Stary5n = 5Stary took 5 of 5

How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home111%

3–1Four sets, home333%

3–2Decider, home00%

2–3Decider, away556%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 9 meetings

MetricSerakStarySerak − StaryBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match43.138.6+4.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSerakStaryBasisWin rate · lifetime79 / 188 vs 56 / 13842%40.6%79 / 188 vs 56 / 138Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.6per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Serak

Serak 1.57/Stary 2.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

57.9%

Serak · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Serak won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record9

WJun 30 · 13:29P. Serak—1211113J. Stary—10960

LJun 30 · 12:00P. Serak—12891192J. Stary—1011112113

LJun 24 · 12:30P. Serak—61111292J. Stary—115511113

LMay 27 · 12:30P. Serak—1111111182J. Stary—134413113

WMay 21 · 09:00P. Serak—81211113J. Stary—1110371

WMay 21 · 07:00P. Serak—12118113J. Stary—1081181

LMay 11 · 08:00P. Serak—11119452J. Stary—581111113

LApr 28 · 11:30P. Serak—11911792J. Stary—411611113

WApr 10 · 07:30P. Serak—111011113J. Stary—612681

P. Serak10

WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112 LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172 LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972 WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860 LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490 LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340 LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113 LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942 WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113 LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751

J. Stary10

LAug 11 · 13:00P. Serak2.00131113153J. Stary1.7315711131 LAug 11 · 11:30J. Stary2.631111431J. Strnad1.4413911113 LAug 11 · 10:30P. Petr1.501111113J. Stary2.505760 LJun 30 · 13:29P. Serak1.911211113J. Stary1.8010960 WJun 30 · 12:00P. Serak1.6712891192J. Stary2.101011112113 LJun 30 · 11:00J. Koch1.7311147113J. Stary2.007121191 WJun 30 · 10:30J. Stary1.6161113113J. Jira2.201181121 WJun 24 · 13:00J. Koch1.44118991J. Stary2.6351111113 WJun 24 · 12:30P. Serak1.6761111292J. Stary2.10115511113 LJun 24 · 11:30J. Stary2.20711891P. Petr1.6111411113

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