TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12397614
Played Aug 11Finished
Pavel Petr
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117116––––
Jiri Stary
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 71.5% is still 71.5%
Graded at full timePavel Petr to win
71.5%
71.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Petr above · Jiri Stary below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Pavel Petr at 71.5%
51 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Petr 8–9 Jiri Stary Pavel Petr has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:14What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Petr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petr 1153 vs Stary 1062
Petr
Correct
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petr 60% vs Stary 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petr 60% vs Stary 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petr +2 · Stary -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Petr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stary form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetr 1.50 / Stary 2.50
Signal prob.72% / 29%
Edge (Petr)+9.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12397614
Petr1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite68% won 23 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it81% 17 of 21
Stary2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 18 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetr6wins
AwayStary4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPetr leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetr57.1%4 of 7
AwayStary33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petr7Stary3n = 10Petr took 7 of 10
S2Petr4Stary6n = 10Stary took 6 of 10
S3Petr5Stary5n = 10split evenly
S4Petr5Stary3n = 8Petr took 5 of 8
S5Petr3Stary2n = 5Petr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetrStaryP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.341.0+2.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetrStaryBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 137 vs 56 / 13656.2%41.2%77 / 137 vs 56 / 136Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetrPetr 1.50/Stary 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.5%
Petr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Petr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 24 · 11:30P. Petr—11411113J. Stary—711891
WJun 9 · 10:00P. Petr—1111113J. Stary—5880
WMay 27 · 11:30P. Petr—1291011113J. Stary—101112772
LApr 28 · 13:30P. Petr—1197101J. Stary—81111123
LApr 28 · 10:30P. Petr—111491182J. Stary—516118113
WApr 10 · 08:30P. Petr—1141111113J. Stary—13119962
WMar 11 · 09:30P. Petr—712117113J. Stary—111071122
WFeb 16 · 07:00P. Petr—1711113J. Stary—15830
LDec 4 · 12:30P. Petr—61181192J. Stary—118119113
LNov 18 · 09:30P. Petr—1281551J. Stary—101117113
P. Petr10
WAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:00A. Tkachenko2.10111111113P. Petr1.67491371LAug 21 · 07:00J. Strnad1.911114113P. Petr1.8061250WAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 18 · 09:30P. Petr1.9111129113J. Strnad1.807101161WAug 18 · 08:30P. Petr1.831611113J. Koch1.8314880WAug 18 · 07:00P. Petr1.61111129113V. Kubat2.2079111172WAug 18 · 06:00J. Strnad1.57126111172P. Petr2.25141194113WAug 11 · 13:28J. Strnad1.50119111572P. Petr2.50711517113LAug 11 · 12:00J. Strnad1.501615113P. Petr2.50141390
J. Stary10
LAug 11 · 13:00P. Serak2.00131113153J. Stary1.7315711131LAug 11 · 12:30P. Serak1.571110511113J. Stary2.2571211872LAug 11 · 11:30J. Stary2.631111431J. Strnad1.4413911113LJun 30 · 13:29P. Serak1.911211113J. Stary1.8010960WJun 30 · 12:00P. Serak1.6712891192J. Stary2.101011112113LJun 30 · 11:00J. Koch1.7311147113J. Stary2.007121191WJun 30 · 10:30J. Stary1.6161113113J. Jira2.201181121WJun 24 · 13:00J. Koch1.44118991J. Stary2.6351111113WJun 24 · 12:30P. Serak1.6761111292J. Stary2.10115511113LJun 24 · 11:30J. Stary2.20711891P. Petr1.6111411113
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