TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098841
Played Sep 9Finished
Cesta Havrda
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811113611311
Petr Serak
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timePetr Serak to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Petr Serak below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 83 set 5, 3-11 — our read held Petr Serak at 59.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 6–18 Petr Serak Cesta Havrda has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:21What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Serak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-18 in 24
Serak
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1014 vs Serak 1060
Serak
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 40% vs Serak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 40% vs Serak 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -2 · Serak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Serak) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Serak form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.25 / Serak 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Havrda)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098841
Havrda2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog21% won 12 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 25
Serak1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 22 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it92% 12 of 13
Up 1–0, closes it65% 15 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda2wins
AwaySerak8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSerak leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda25%1 of 4
AwaySerak83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda4Serak6n = 10Serak took 6 of 10
S2Havrda5Serak5n = 10split evenly
S3Havrda4Serak6n = 10Serak took 6 of 10
S4Havrda3Serak4n = 7Serak took 4 of 7
S5Havrda0Serak4n = 4Serak took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaSerakH − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.540.4−5.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaSerakBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 252 vs 73 / 18241.7%40.1%105 / 252 vs 73 / 182Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SerakHavrda 2.25/Serak 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Serak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Serak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda—31060P. Serak—1112113
LAug 12 · 06:30C. Havrda—71391162P. Serak—1111117113
LMar 16 · 07:30C. Havrda—6640P. Serak—1111113
LSep 9 · 11:00C. Havrda—11118862P. Serak—951111113
WAug 7 · 13:00C. Havrda—1311113P. Serak—11950
WAug 7 · 11:30C. Havrda—71211113P. Serak—1110361
LAug 6 · 09:04C. Havrda—41131292P. Serak—1181110113
LAug 6 · 08:30C. Havrda—11511962P. Serak—711711113
LJul 17 · 11:30C. Havrda—271181P. Serak—11119113
LJul 1 · 09:03C. Havrda—136881P. Serak—111111113
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591
P. Serak10
WAug 22 · 09:00P. Serak1.101211127133J. Koch6.501451011112LAug 22 · 08:00A. Tkachenko1.531110129113P. Serak2.38712101172LAug 22 · 07:00P. Potmesil1.67771111113P. Serak2.1011117972WAug 22 · 06:30P. Serak1.251111113J. Koch3.756860LAug 21 · 08:58P. Petr1.441111113P. Serak2.638490LAug 21 · 08:30J. Strnad1.361111113P. Serak3.004340LAug 21 · 07:30P. Serak2.207860A. Tkachenko1.611111113LAug 21 · 06:30P. Petr1.44881111113P. Serak2.6311118942WAug 12 · 09:30C. Havrda2.2031060P. Serak1.601112113LAug 12 · 08:30J. Strnad1.57101111113P. Serak2.25124751
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