TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135187
Played Sep 16Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7116111210711––
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:07 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 55.8%
75 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 3–3 Konrad Staszczyk Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:07What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Staszczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1714 vs Staszczyk 1629
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 80% vs Staszczyk 40%
Kolek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 80% vs Staszczyk 50%
Kolek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +3 · Staszczyk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.00 / Staszczyk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13135187
Kolek2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 175 of 449
Down 0–1, comes back21% 55 of 265
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 122
Staszczyk1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite64% won 157 of 245
Up 2–0, closes it89% 62 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it82% 111 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKolek3wins
AwayStaszczyk3wins
5 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek100%3 of 3
AwayStaszczyk100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Staszczyk3n = 6split evenly
S2Kolek2Staszczyk4n = 6Staszczyk took 4 of 6
S3Kolek3Staszczyk3n = 6split evenly
S4Kolek3Staszczyk3n = 6split evenly
S5Kolek3Staszczyk2n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKolekStaszczykK − SBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match44.842.5+2.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime704 / 1411 vs 197 / 34949.9%56.5%704 / 1411 vs 197 / 349Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykKolek 2.00/Staszczyk 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Staszczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek44611611102K. Staszczyk43115114123
WSep 11 · 13:50M. Kolek46116711113K. Staszczyk3441111442
WJun 28 · 18:30M. Kolek52119911123K. Staszczyk46711117102
LMay 31 · 13:00M. Kolek4871112992K. Staszczyk521191011113
WMay 31 · 04:10M. Kolek46114119113K. Staszczyk3871151142
LMay 21 · 16:55M. Kolek33691171K. Staszczyk4211119113
M. Kolek10
WSep 16 · 21:25M. Kolek1.2513119133J. Lamperski3.7511911111WSep 16 · 20:30D. Solilo1.83531281M. Kolek1.83111110113WSep 16 · 19:15M. Kolek2.25311811143M. Rutkowski1.57116119122LSep 16 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.2561113163M. Kolek1.5711711141WSep 16 · 16:55M. Minda1.918650M. Kolek1.801111113WSep 16 · 15:25B. Sulkowski3.2511117992M. Kolek1.33991111113WSep 14 · 19:40M. Kolek1.6112911113K. Rudomina2.201011881LSep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek1.6188111192A. Linek2.20111153113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek1.57811118113K. Kostyk2.2511761162WSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153
K. Staszczyk10
WSep 16 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.571111113D. Solilo2.259680LSep 15 · 24:10K. Staszczyk1.6791113972K. Kostyk2.101191111113LSep 14 · 23:20K. Staszczyk1.40118119112A. Linek2.75711711133LSep 14 · 21:50K. Staszczyk1.5097111142D. Solilo2.50111157113WSep 14 · 21:25K. Staszczyk1.221111113J. Lamperski4.008680WSep 14 · 20:30J. Witkowski1.916970K. Staszczyk1.801111113WSep 14 · 19:15K. Staszczyk1.6151111113K. Kostyk2.20119821WSep 14 · 18:05K. Rudomina2.75119871K. Staszczyk1.4061111113LSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162LSep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek2.103K. Staszczyk1.670
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
Sep 16 · 23:20M. Kolek1.83D. Solilo1.83—Sep 17 · 24:10M. Kolek1.36B. Sulkowski3.00—Sep 17 · 15:25M. Kolek—M. Rutkowski——Sep 17 · 16:55M. Kolek—A. Mugowski——Sep 17 · 18:05M. Kolek—D. Solilo——Sep 17 · 19:15M. Kolek—K. Rudomina——Sep 17 · 20:30M. Kolek—M. Lukaszewski——Sep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek—A. Mugowski——Sep 17 · 21:50M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——Sep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek—M. Lukaszewski——
K. Staszczyk
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