TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125518
Played Sep 14Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1178111179111113
Adam Linek
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeKonrad Staszczyk to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Adam Linek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 99 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Konrad Staszczyk at 60.4%
99 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 2–3 Adam Linek Konrad Staszczyk has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Linek beat Staszczyk 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1642 vs Linek 1534
Staszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 80% vs Linek 60%
Staszczyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 60% vs Linek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk -1 · Linek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Linek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.40 / Linek 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Staszczyk)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125518
Staszczyk1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite65% won 153 of 237
Up 2–0, closes it88% 60 of 68
Up 1–0, closes it83% 109 of 131
Linek2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 146 of 356
Down 0–1, comes back26% 52 of 199
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStaszczyk2wins
AwayLinek3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderLinek leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk50%2 of 4
AwayLinekn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk4Linek1n = 5Staszczyk took 4 of 5
S2Staszczyk2Linek3n = 5Linek took 3 of 5
S3Staszczyk3Linek2n = 5Staszczyk took 3 of 5
S4Staszczyk1Linek3n = 4Linek took 3 of 4
S5Staszczyk1Linek2n = 3Linek took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStaszczykLinekS − LBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match42.842.4+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykLinekBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 348 vs 788 / 168356.6%46.8%197 / 348 vs 788 / 1683Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.40/Linek 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.7%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Linek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 14 · 23:20K. Staszczyk50118119112A. Linek49711711133
LSep 14 · 16:55K. Staszczyk4311691162A. Linek45711115113
WJun 28 · 17:20K. Staszczyk331111113A. Linek248970
WMay 21 · 18:10K. Staszczyk49141176113A. Linek47128111152
LMay 17 · 16:25K. Staszczyk398511151A. Linek4711118173
K. Staszczyk10
LSep 14 · 21:50K. Staszczyk1.5097111142D. Solilo2.50111157113WSep 14 · 21:25K. Staszczyk1.221111113J. Lamperski4.008680WSep 14 · 20:30J. Witkowski1.916970K. Staszczyk1.801111113WSep 14 · 18:05K. Rudomina2.75119871K. Staszczyk1.4061111113LSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162LSep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek2.103K. Staszczyk1.670WSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.5091070K. Staszczyk2.501112113LSep 13 · 18:05K. Staszczyk1.837380D. Jadam1.831111113LSep 13 · 16:30K. Staszczyk1.53119113122G. Kesik2.38711411143
A. Linek10
WSep 14 · 22:35D. Solilo1.57111113692A. Linek2.25961511113WSep 14 · 22:10A. Linek1.301111113J. Lamperski3.408980LSep 14 · 21:00K. Kostyk1.4413119143A. Linek2.4511711121LSep 14 · 20:05A. Linek2.2511611772K. Kostyk1.57711911113WSep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek1.6188111192A. Linek2.20111153113WSep 14 · 17:40J. Witkowski1.537111081A. Linek2.3811812113WSep 14 · 16:55A. Linek3.00711115113K. Staszczyk1.3611691162WSep 14 · 15:45A. Linek1.731151110123K. Rudomina2.00911912102LSep 14 · 24:35A. Linek1.884990K. Rudomina1.821111113WSep 13 · 23:45R. Stapor1.9048111162A. Linek1.75111159113
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk
A. Linek
Sep 15 · 15:00A. Linek—K. Kostyk——Sep 15 · 16:30A. Linek—J. Witkowski——Sep 15 · 17:20A. Linek—J. Lamperski——Sep 15 · 19:15A. Linek—L. Pietraszko——Sep 15 · 20:05A. Linek—B. Kwodawski——Sep 15 · 21:00A. Linek—K. Kostyk——Sep 15 · 22:55A. Linek—D. Solilo——Sep 15 · 23:45A. Linek—B. Kwodawski——Sep 16 · 24:10A. Linek—L. Pietraszko——
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