TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13139185
Played Sep 16Finished
Jakub Zochniak
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
61111713111614––
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Zochniak above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 16-14
Point 89 set 4, 16-14 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Zochniak 23–25 Maciej Kolek Jakub Zochniak has won 23 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kolek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-25 in 48
Kolek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zochniak 1623 vs Kolek 1712
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zochniak 80% vs Kolek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zochniak 70% vs Kolek 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zochniak -1 · Kolek +3
Kolek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZochniak 2.25 / Kolek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kolek)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13139185
Zochniak2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 138 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back13% 30 of 232
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 124
Kolek1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite60% won 254 of 421
Up 2–0, closes it94% 88 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 236
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZochniak5wins
AwayKolek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZochniak80%4 of 5
AwayKolek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zochniak5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S2Zochniak6Kolek4n = 10Zochniak took 6 of 10
S3Zochniak5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S4Zochniak2Kolek8n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S5Zochniak3Kolek1n = 4Zochniak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZochniakKolekZ − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.5−1.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZochniakKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime1158 / 2212 vs 703 / 141052.4%49.9%1158 / 2212 vs 703 / 1410Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekZochniak 2.25/Kolek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.7%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zochniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 03:00J. Zochniak45711115113M. Kolek4611881182
LAug 30 · 15:25J. Zochniak31611681M. Kolek3811511113
WAug 28 · 03:00J. Zochniak4011711113M. Kolek35711981
LAug 19 · 06:25J. Zochniak376119111M. Kolek4211711133
LAug 13 · 13:55J. Zochniak31611681M. Kolek3911611113
WAug 13 · 04:40J. Zochniak47111357113M. Kolek49911111172
WAug 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak45114118113M. Kolek4291151162
WJul 12 · 15:25J. Zochniak3711411113M. Kolek29511671
LJul 10 · 09:50J. Zochniak37118991M. Kolek3961111113
LJul 9 · 08:30J. Zochniak4361111782M. Kolek46115811113
J. Zochniak10
LSep 17 · 14:20J. Zochniak1.75111111992M. Minda1.90138911113WSep 17 · 12:40W. Suchecki4.207140J. Zochniak1.161111113WSep 17 · 11:50F. Krcil2.6511991182J. Zochniak1.38811119113LSep 17 · 11:00J. Zochniak2.25711561D. Kosmal1.5711711113WSep 17 · 09:50J. Zochniak1.44111011113R. Stapor2.47912681LSep 16 · 19:40B. Sulkowski2.101471111113J. Zochniak1.67121113992WSep 16 · 18:50D. Solilo1.83814531J. Zochniak1.83111211113LSep 16 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.50771261M. Rutkowski1.50111110113WSep 16 · 15:45M. Minda1.7376100J. Zochniak2.001111123WSep 16 · 14:40A. Szoltysek3.6598100J. Zochniak1.211111123
M. Kolek10
WSep 17 · 20:30M. Lukaszewski4.0011941172M. Kolek1.22911119113LSep 17 · 19:15M. Kolek1.6112712111K. Rudomina2.20101114133WSep 17 · 18:05D. Solilo1.809890M. Kolek1.911111113LSep 17 · 16:55A. Mugowski2.63711117113M. Kolek1.4411991192WSep 17 · 15:25M. Rutkowski1.537611101M. Kolek2.3811118123WSep 17 · 24:10M. Kolek1.36116811113B. Sulkowski3.0061111592LSep 16 · 23:20M. Kolek1.835860D. Solilo1.831111113LSep 16 · 21:50M. Kolek2.00761271K. Staszczyk1.73111110113WSep 16 · 21:25M. Kolek1.2513119133J. Lamperski3.7511911111WSep 16 · 20:30D. Solilo1.83531281M. Kolek1.83111110113
Upcoming Matches
J. Zochniak
M. Kolek
Sep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek1.44A. Mugowski2.63—Sep 17 · 21:50M. Kolek2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek1.28M. Lukaszewski3.50—Sep 18 · 24:10M. Kolek1.61K. Rudomina2.20—Sep 18 · 16:05M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——Sep 18 · 17:40M. Kolek—M. Woskowicz——Sep 18 · 18:30M. Kolek—A. Daniel——Sep 18 · 20:30M. Kolek—B. Sulkowski——Sep 18 · 21:20M. Kolek—P. Maruszak——
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