TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13141058
Played Sep 17Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7116111181012––
Maciej Kolek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 76 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 23–20 Maciej Kolek Maciej Kolek has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Rutkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-20 in 43
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1684 vs Kolek 1687
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 50% vs Kolek 70%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Kolek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.53 / Kolek 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rutkowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13141058
Rutkowski1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 358 of 502
Up 2–0, closes it98% 173 of 177
Up 1–0, closes it90% 280 of 313
Kolek2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 175 of 449
Down 0–1, comes back21% 56 of 266
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski7wins
AwayKolek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski87.5%7 of 8
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski8Kolek2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski7Kolek3n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Rutkowski1Kolek5n = 6Kolek took 5 of 6
S5Rutkowski3Kolek1n = 4Rutkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKolekR − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.334.4+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime798 / 1420 vs 705 / 141456.2%49.9%798 / 1420 vs 705 / 1414Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.53/Kolek 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 2 · 17:00M. Rutkowski521110119113M. Kolek4041271162
WJul 2 · 16:30M. Rutkowski521110119113M. Kolek4041271162
WJun 24 · 01:10M. Rutkowski4111811113M. Kolek29511761
WJun 23 · 22:50M. Rutkowski331111113M. Kolek228860
WJun 14 · 16:25M. Rutkowski331111113M. Kolek189360
LJun 13 · 20:15M. Rutkowski249690M. Kolek331111113
WMay 28 · 01:30M. Rutkowski44111156113M. Kolek4696111192
LMay 27 · 23:00M. Rutkowski4591111682M. Kolek48116911113
WApr 30 · 19:00M. Rutkowski331111113M. Kolek269980
LApr 22 · 01:30M. Rutkowski26114471M. Kolek4291111113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 17 · 17:20M. Rutkowski1.221111143K. Rudomina4.0098120WSep 17 · 16:05M. Lukaszewski4.0017101271M. Rutkowski1.22191210113LSep 17 · 14:35M. Rutkowski1.75891191G. Poliniewicz1.9011115113WSep 17 · 13:00M. Rutkowski1.6311911113M. Olbrycht2.05211971WSep 17 · 11:45M. Rutkowski1.3712911113D. Solilo2.701011861LSep 17 · 10:05M. Rutkowski1.754760K. Kapik1.901111113LSep 17 · 09:00M. Rutkowski1.74125471P. Jendrzejewski1.90101111113WSep 16 · 20:05M. Minda2.754960M. Rutkowski1.401111113LSep 16 · 19:15M. Kolek2.25311811143M. Rutkowski1.57116119122WSep 16 · 17:20B. Sulkowski3.50611651M. Rutkowski1.2811711113
M. Kolek10
LSep 17 · 16:55A. Mugowski2.63711117113M. Kolek1.4411991192WSep 17 · 24:10M. Kolek1.36116811113B. Sulkowski3.0061111592LSep 16 · 23:20M. Kolek1.835860D. Solilo1.831111113LSep 16 · 21:50M. Kolek2.00761271K. Staszczyk1.73111110113WSep 16 · 21:25M. Kolek1.2513119133J. Lamperski3.7511911111WSep 16 · 20:30D. Solilo1.83531281M. Kolek1.83111110113WSep 16 · 19:15M. Kolek2.25311811143M. Rutkowski1.57116119122LSep 16 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.2561113163M. Kolek1.5711711141WSep 16 · 16:55M. Minda1.918650M. Kolek1.801111113WSep 16 · 15:25B. Sulkowski3.2511117992M. Kolek1.33991111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
M. Kolek
Sep 17 · 18:05M. Kolek1.91D. Solilo1.80—Sep 17 · 19:15M. Kolek1.61K. Rudomina2.20—Sep 17 · 20:30M. Kolek1.36M. Lukaszewski3.00—Sep 17 · 21:25M. Kolek1.44A. Mugowski2.63—Sep 17 · 21:50M. Kolek2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 17 · 23:20M. Kolek1.28M. Lukaszewski3.50—Sep 18 · 24:10M. Kolek1.61K. Rudomina2.20—Sep 18 · 16:05M. Kolek—K. Staszczyk——Sep 18 · 17:40M. Kolek—M. Woskowicz——Sep 18 · 18:30M. Kolek—A. Daniel——
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