TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138957
Played Sep 16Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611117611511––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.29
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:25 and never touched — 62.3% is still 62.3%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
62.3%
62.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 68 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 62.3%
68 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 1–16 Mateusz Rutkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 1 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:25What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-16 in 17
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 15 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1507 vs Rutkowski 1711
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 204 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 60% vs Rutkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 50% vs Rutkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski -2 · Rutkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 3.50 / Rutkowski 1.28
Signal prob.21% / 79%
Edge (Rutkowski)+6.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13138957
Sulkowski3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 154 of 474
Down 0–1, comes back17% 46 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Rutkowski1.28
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 354 of 497
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it90% 278 of 308
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski0wins
AwayRutkowski10wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRutkowski100%8 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S2Sulkowski4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S3Sulkowski2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S4Sulkowski2Rutkowski6n = 8Rutkowski took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiRutkowskiS − RBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match32.241.1−8.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime557 / 1257 vs 794 / 141244.3%56.2%557 / 1257 vs 794 / 1412Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiSulkowski 3.50/Rutkowski 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 19 · 23:50B. Sulkowski4561191272M. Rutkowski521191110113
LMay 19 · 21:30B. Sulkowski28921161M. Rutkowski3811115113
LMay 1 · 16:40B. Sulkowski196760M. Rutkowski331111113
LApr 30 · 20:35B. Sulkowski32811491M. Rutkowski4111811113
LApr 15 · 16:40B. Sulkowski31136481M. Rutkowski44111111113
LApr 9 · 23:50B. Sulkowski4591171172M. Rutkowski45116116113
LApr 9 · 21:30B. Sulkowski391511671M. Rutkowski4617711113
LApr 9 · 15:30B. Sulkowski32591171M. Rutkowski3811115113
LMar 6 · 01:15B. Sulkowski186480M. Rutkowski331111113
LMar 5 · 22:50B. Sulkowski33118771M. Rutkowski4191111103
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 16 · 16:05D. Solilo1.7313119123B. Sulkowski2.0011911101LSep 16 · 15:25B. Sulkowski3.2511117992M. Kolek1.33991111113WSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171WSep 11 · 13:05B. Sulkowski1.8591113113B. Mleczko1.851151171WSep 11 · 11:50B. Sulkowski1.9211411113M. Misiak1.73811861WSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880LSep 11 · 09:00B. Sulkowski2.201151181B. Czerwinski1.5871113113LSep 11 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.2211118123B. Sulkowski3.756511101WSep 11 · 06:50D. Solilo1.8559100B. Sulkowski1.801111123LSep 11 · 06:00B. Sulkowski1.9311911562B. Mleczko1.78711911113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 16 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.50771261M. Rutkowski1.50111110113LSep 16 · 15:00D. Solilo3.759111111113M. Rutkowski1.2511813842WSep 16 · 14:15M. Rutkowski1.57101311123D. Kosmal2.2512118101WSep 16 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz1.951186141M. Rutkowski1.7071111163LSep 16 · 11:45M. Olbrycht2.09813811113M. Rutkowski1.61111111592WSep 16 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8512167133P. Jendrzejewski1.85101411111WSep 16 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.831111125113K. Kapik1.8789141162WSep 15 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.867950M. Rutkowski1.801111113LSep 15 · 13:25M. Rutkowski1.9597110K. Glazowski1.701111133LSep 15 · 12:10L. Jarocki1.731011129113M. Rutkowski1.92122101132
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
M. Rutkowski
Sep 16 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.57M. Kolek2.25—Sep 16 · 20:05M. Rutkowski1.40M. Minda2.75—Sep 17 · 09:00M. Rutkowski—P. Jendrzejewski——Sep 17 · 10:05M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——Sep 17 · 11:45M. Rutkowski—D. Solilo——Sep 17 · 13:00M. Rutkowski—M. Olbrycht——Sep 17 · 14:35M. Rutkowski—G. Poliniewicz——Sep 17 · 15:25M. Rutkowski—M. Kolek——Sep 17 · 16:05M. Rutkowski—M. Lukaszewski——Sep 17 · 17:20M. Rutkowski—K. Rudomina——
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