TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13133358
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Malachowski
Home
1.86
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911511––––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:29 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
711911511––––
H2H Michal Malachowski 12–24 Mateusz Rutkowski Michal Malachowski has won 12 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:29What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-24 in 36
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 12 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1685 vs Rutkowski 1671
Malachowski
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 20% vs Rutkowski 40%
Rutkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 20% vs Rutkowski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski -3 · Rutkowski -2
Malachowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 1.86 / Rutkowski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Rutkowski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13133358
Malachowski1.86
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 32 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Rutkowski1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 355 of 499
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it90% 278 of 308
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalachowski2wins
AwayRutkowski8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski50%2 of 4
AwayRutkowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski4Rutkowski6n = 10Rutkowski took 6 of 10
S2Malachowski3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Malachowski3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Malachowski2Rutkowski5n = 7Rutkowski took 5 of 7
S5Malachowski1Rutkowski2n = 3Rutkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalachowskiRutkowskiM − RBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.139.7−5.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime414 / 790 vs 788 / 140452.4%56.1%414 / 790 vs 788 / 1404Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiMalachowski 1.86/Rutkowski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 10:55M. Malachowski4011711113M. Rutkowski33811681
LAug 25 · 21:50M. Malachowski154920M. Rutkowski331111113
LAug 24 · 22:35M. Malachowski41111110632M. Rutkowski45561211113
LAug 21 · 22:05M. Malachowski376111371M. Rutkowski4311615113
LAug 21 · 20:05M. Malachowski2797110M. Rutkowski351111133
WAug 20 · 21:50M. Malachowski49119117113M. Rutkowski4251191162
LAug 9 · 16:55M. Malachowski32671181M. Rutkowski4111118113
LAug 8 · 16:30M. Malachowski351177101M. Rutkowski4171111123
LJul 9 · 23:15M. Malachowski48911101262M. Rutkowski481141210113
LJul 9 · 21:00M. Malachowski1712320M. Rutkowski361411113
M. Malachowski10
LSep 15 · 13:00M. Malachowski1.90101430L. Jarocki1.751216113LSep 15 · 11:45M. Malachowski2.4391561192M. Miastowski1.451113117113LSep 15 · 10:05M. Malachowski2.251191041M. Sklensky1.5791112113WSep 15 · 09:00M. Malachowski2.10118611113K. Glazowski1.6691111892LSep 15 · 07:40K. Wisniewski2.00119113113M. Malachowski1.7071151192LSep 15 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.5811111111113M. Malachowski2.1413213572LSep 15 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.02411491L. Jarocki1.6511911113LSep 15 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.75881161K. Glazowski1.9511117113LSep 15 · 03:40K. Kapik2.001111113M. Malachowski1.666870WSep 14 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.915570M. Malachowski1.801111113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 15 · 13:25M. Rutkowski1.9597110K. Glazowski1.701111133LSep 15 · 12:10L. Jarocki1.731011129113M. Rutkowski1.92122101132WSep 15 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.51491151M. Rutkowski2.2811118113LSep 15 · 09:20M. Sklensky1.6161212113M. Rutkowski2.0911101061WSep 14 · 14:15M. Rutkowski1.7613611133G. Poliniewicz1.9011115111LSep 14 · 12:35K. Kapik2.051111113M. Rutkowski1.668640WSep 14 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.7411991192M. Rutkowski1.95611118113LSep 14 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.83811681M. Malachowski1.8311711113LSep 14 · 09:45M. Rutkowski2.08561151K. Glazowski1.6111118113LSep 14 · 24:10D. Jadam2.389111110113M. Rutkowski1.5311551252
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