TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13132829
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Malachowski
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121416311––––
Lukasz Jarocki
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:24 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Malachowski to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
10121416311––––
H2H Michal Malachowski 22–10 Lukasz Jarocki Lukasz Jarocki has won 10 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 7h before this match
Jarocki beat Malachowski 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:24What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Jarocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-10 in 32
Malachowski
Wrong
gap of 12 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1697 vs Jarocki 1741
Jarocki
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 20% vs Jarocki 60%
Jarocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 30% vs Jarocki 60%
Jarocki
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski -2 · Jarocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jarocki) · live re-read · sealed at 31% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malachowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 1.90 / Jarocki 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jarocki)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13132829
Malachowski1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 32 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Jarocki1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 125 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it92% 70 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it77% 91 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalachowski7wins
AwayJarocki3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMalachowski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski80%4 of 5
AwayJarocki40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Malachowski6Jarocki4n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S3Malachowski5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Malachowski4Jarocki3n = 7Malachowski took 4 of 7
S5Malachowski3Jarocki0n = 3Malachowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalachowskiJarockiM − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.437.5+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime415 / 790 vs 827 / 147652.5%56%415 / 790 vs 827 / 1476Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiMalachowski 1.90/Jarocki 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:00M. Malachowski28411491L. Jarocki4211911113
WSep 14 · 14:35M. Malachowski331111113L. Jarocki175570
WSep 14 · 03:40M. Malachowski46111410113L. Jarocki409121271
LApr 23 · 15:30M. Malachowski219660L. Jarocki331111113
WApr 22 · 20:10M. Malachowski496101111113L. Jarocki4611127972
WApr 9 · 07:55M. Malachowski351311113L. Jarocki2911990
WJan 28 · 12:05M. Malachowski45121111113L. Jarocki34145961
WJan 21 · 14:10M. Malachowski47119611103L. Jarocki4791111882
LJan 8 · 12:05M. Malachowski371193141L. Jarocki4681111163
WDec 27 · 04:45M. Malachowski43411116113L. Jarocki4111691142
M. Malachowski10
LSep 15 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.867950M. Rutkowski1.801111113LSep 15 · 11:45M. Malachowski2.4391561192M. Miastowski1.451113117113LSep 15 · 10:05M. Malachowski2.251191041M. Sklensky1.5791112113WSep 15 · 09:00M. Malachowski2.10118611113K. Glazowski1.6691111892LSep 15 · 07:40K. Wisniewski2.00119113113M. Malachowski1.7071151192LSep 15 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.5811111111113M. Malachowski2.1413213572LSep 15 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.02411491L. Jarocki1.6511911113LSep 15 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.75881161K. Glazowski1.9511117113LSep 15 · 03:40K. Kapik2.001111113M. Malachowski1.666870WSep 14 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.915570M. Malachowski1.801111113
L. Jarocki10
WSep 15 · 13:50M. Sklensky1.7111712942L. Jarocki1.945111011113WSep 15 · 12:10L. Jarocki1.731011129113M. Rutkowski1.92122101132LSep 15 · 10:30L. Jarocki1.921191091K. Glazowski1.7391112113LSep 15 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.6011612113L. Jarocki2.105111081WSep 15 · 08:30M. Sklensky1.75121170L. Jarocki1.901413113WSep 15 · 07:15L. Jarocki1.92811117113K. Glazowski1.7311861182WSep 15 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.02411491L. Jarocki1.6511911113WSep 15 · 04:50K. Kapik2.10611111652L. Jarocki1.651191314113LSep 15 · 03:20K. Wisniewski2.35111194113L. Jarocki1.5097111132LSep 14 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.915570M. Malachowski1.801111113
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