TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13132946
Played Sep 15Finished
Miroslav Sklensky
Home
1.71
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1157111210911411
Lukasz Jarocki
Away
1.94
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:13 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Sklensky to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
91 points played in total.
Set by set
1157111210911411
H2H Miroslav Sklensky 47–42 Lukasz Jarocki Lukasz Jarocki has won 42 of their 89 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Jarocki beat Sklensky 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 03:13What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.71 (53%)
Sklensky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-42 in 89
Sklensky
Wrong
gap of 5 in 89, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sklensky 1797 vs Jarocki 1754
Sklensky
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sklensky 40% vs Jarocki 60%
Jarocki
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sklensky 70% vs Jarocki 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sklensky -2 · Jarocki +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sklensky) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sklensky form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSklensky 1.71 / Jarocki 1.94
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sklensky)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13132946
Sklensky1.71
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite68% won 223 of 329
Up 2–0, closes it97% 121 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it84% 162 of 193
Jarocki1.94
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 60 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back26% 19 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSklensky6wins
AwayJarocki4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSklensky leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSklensky80%4 of 5
AwayJarocki60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sklensky5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Sklensky7Jarocki3n = 10Sklensky took 7 of 10
S3Sklensky3Jarocki7n = 10Jarocki took 7 of 10
S4Sklensky6Jarocki2n = 8Sklensky took 6 of 8
S5Sklensky2Jarocki2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSklenskyJarockiS − JBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.142.3−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSklenskyJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime675 / 1131 vs 828 / 147759.7%56.1%675 / 1131 vs 828 / 1477Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SklenskySklensky 1.71/Jarocki 1.94
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sklensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 08:30M. Sklensky30121170L. Jarocki381413113
LSep 1 · 16:30M. Sklensky4011115492L. Jarocki49881111113
WSep 1 · 11:45M. Sklensky3811511113L. Jarocki36811981
WAug 31 · 20:30M. Sklensky47114415133L. Jarocki5811121113112
WAug 31 · 09:45M. Sklensky44111011123L. Jarocki314125101
LAug 11 · 17:20M. Sklensky536111312112L. Jarocki551161510133
LAug 11 · 11:45M. Sklensky367136101L. Jarocki45111111123
WAug 10 · 18:50M. Sklensky331111113L. Jarocki177550
WAug 10 · 10:55M. Sklensky44121110113L. Jarocki371071281
WJul 28 · 19:40M. Sklensky566111315113L. Jarocki57119151392
M. Sklensky10
LSep 15 · 12:35M. Sklensky1.871171171M. Miastowski1.8371113113LSep 15 · 11:20M. Sklensky1.8351111832K. Glazowski1.87118611113WSep 15 · 10:05M. Malachowski2.251191041M. Sklensky1.5791112113WSep 15 · 09:20M. Sklensky1.6161212113M. Rutkowski2.0911101061LSep 15 · 08:30M. Sklensky1.75121170L. Jarocki1.901413113WSep 15 · 06:50M. Sklensky1.5811111111113M. Malachowski2.1413213572WSep 15 · 05:35M. Sklensky1.4951111113K. Kapik2.34115761WSep 15 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.411111113K. Wisniewski2.608640WSep 15 · 03:00M. Sklensky1.801111113K. Glazowski1.904740WSep 8 · 13:50G. Poliniewicz2.0511611962M. Sklensky1.65911611113
L. Jarocki10
WSep 15 · 13:00M. Malachowski1.90101430L. Jarocki1.751216113WSep 15 · 12:10L. Jarocki1.731011129113M. Rutkowski1.92122101132LSep 15 · 10:30L. Jarocki1.921191091K. Glazowski1.7391112113LSep 15 · 09:45M. Miastowski1.6011612113L. Jarocki2.105111081WSep 15 · 08:30M. Sklensky1.75121170L. Jarocki1.901413113WSep 15 · 07:15L. Jarocki1.92811117113K. Glazowski1.7311861182WSep 15 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.02411491L. Jarocki1.6511911113WSep 15 · 04:50K. Kapik2.10611111652L. Jarocki1.651191314113LSep 15 · 03:20K. Wisniewski2.35111194113L. Jarocki1.5097111132LSep 14 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.915570M. Malachowski1.801111113
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