TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130600
Played Sep 15Finished
Michal Malachowski
Home
2.02
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411119411911––
Lukasz Jarocki
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:00 and never touched — 68.8% is still 68.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Malachowski to win
68.8%
68.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
411119411911––
H2H Michal Malachowski 22–10 Lukasz Jarocki Lukasz Jarocki has won 10 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Jarocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-10 in 32
Malachowski
Wrong
gap of 12 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Malachowski 1724 vs Jarocki 1724
Malachowski
Wrong
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Malachowski 40% vs Jarocki 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Malachowski 70% vs Jarocki 50%
Malachowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Malachowski -2 · Jarocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jarocki) · live re-read · sealed at 31% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jarocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMalachowski 2.02 / Jarocki 1.65
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jarocki)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13130600
Malachowski2.02
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 32 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back25% 12 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Jarocki1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 125 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it92% 70 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it77% 91 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMalachowski7wins
AwayJarocki3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMalachowski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMalachowski80%4 of 5
AwayJarocki40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Malachowski5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Malachowski6Jarocki4n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S3Malachowski5Jarocki5n = 10split evenly
S4Malachowski4Jarocki3n = 7Malachowski took 4 of 7
S5Malachowski3Jarocki0n = 3Malachowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalachowskiJarockiM − JBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.437.5+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalachowskiJarockiBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 791 vs 824 / 147152.6%56%416 / 791 vs 824 / 1471Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiMalachowski 2.02/Jarocki 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Jarocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 06:00M. Malachowski28411491L. Jarocki4211911113
WSep 14 · 14:35M. Malachowski331111113L. Jarocki175570
WSep 14 · 03:40M. Malachowski46111410113L. Jarocki409121271
LApr 23 · 15:30M. Malachowski219660L. Jarocki331111113
WApr 22 · 20:10M. Malachowski496101111113L. Jarocki4611127972
WApr 9 · 07:55M. Malachowski351311113L. Jarocki2911990
WJan 28 · 12:05M. Malachowski45121111113L. Jarocki34145961
WJan 21 · 14:10M. Malachowski47119611103L. Jarocki4791111882
LJan 8 · 12:05M. Malachowski371193141L. Jarocki4681111163
WDec 27 · 04:45M. Malachowski43411116113L. Jarocki4111691142
M. Malachowski10
LSep 15 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.75881161K. Glazowski1.9511117113LSep 15 · 03:40K. Kapik2.001111113M. Malachowski1.666870WSep 14 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.915570M. Malachowski1.801111113WSep 14 · 13:25M. Malachowski1.801113107113G. Poliniewicz1.90411121172LSep 14 · 12:10K. Glazowski1.64118137113M. Malachowski2.04911111182WSep 14 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.83811681M. Malachowski1.8311711113WSep 14 · 09:20K. Kapik2.006990M. Malachowski1.661111113WSep 14 · 07:40A. Sobel2.75711471M. Malachowski1.3711911113WSep 14 · 06:50K. Wisniewski2.201013171292M. Malachowski1.6012151510113WSep 14 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.05116116123K. Glazowski1.65911411102
L. Jarocki10
WSep 15 · 04:50K. Kapik2.10611111652L. Jarocki1.651191314113LSep 15 · 03:20K. Wisniewski2.35111194113L. Jarocki1.5097111132LSep 14 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.915570M. Malachowski1.801111113WSep 14 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.92151011113K. Glazowski1.731312991LSep 14 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.7411991192M. Rutkowski1.95611118113LSep 14 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.62114331K. Kapik2.1591111113LSep 14 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.63611461G. Poliniewicz2.0511711113WSep 14 · 08:05L. Jarocki2.16911811113J. Kuzmicz1.5711611792WSep 14 · 06:25A. Sobel2.70261191L. Jarocki1.4111118113WSep 14 · 05:35K. Wisniewski2.38631161L. Jarocki1.5311119113
Upcoming Matches
M. Malachowski
Sep 15 · 06:50M. Malachowski2.14M. Sklensky1.58—Sep 15 · 07:40M. Malachowski1.55K. Wisniewski2.19—Sep 15 · 09:00M. Malachowski2.10K. Glazowski1.60—Sep 15 · 10:05M. Malachowski2.25M. Sklensky1.57—Sep 15 · 11:45M. Malachowski2.43M. Miastowski1.45—Sep 15 · 13:00M. Malachowski2.02L. Jarocki1.65—Sep 15 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.89M. Rutkowski1.76—
L. Jarocki
Sep 15 · 07:15L. Jarocki1.92K. Glazowski1.73—Sep 15 · 08:30L. Jarocki1.95M. Sklensky1.74—Sep 15 · 09:45L. Jarocki2.10M. Miastowski1.60—Sep 15 · 10:30L. Jarocki1.92K. Glazowski1.73—Sep 15 · 12:10L. Jarocki1.73M. Rutkowski1.92—Sep 15 · 13:00L. Jarocki1.65M. Malachowski2.02—Sep 15 · 13:50L. Jarocki1.94M. Sklensky1.71—
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