TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13126519
Played Sep 14Finished
Lukasz Jarocki
Home
1.74
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116911911118911
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 55.9% is still 55.9%
Graded at full timeLukasz Jarocki to win
55.9%
55.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
116911911118911
H2H Lukasz Jarocki 15–5 Mateusz Rutkowski Mateusz Rutkowski has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Jarocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-5 in 20
Jarocki
Wrong
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jarocki 1727 vs Rutkowski 1673
Jarocki
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jarocki 60% vs Rutkowski 40%
Jarocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jarocki 50% vs Rutkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jarocki -2 · Rutkowski -3
Rutkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jarocki) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJarocki 1.74 / Rutkowski 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jarocki)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13126519
Jarocki1.74
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 126 of 207
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it77% 90 of 117
Rutkowski1.95
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 130 of 313
Down 0–1, comes back22% 41 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJarocki8wins
AwayRutkowski2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJarocki leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJarocki88.9%8 of 9
AwayRutkowskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jarocki9Rutkowski1n = 10Jarocki took 9 of 10
S2Jarocki9Rutkowski1n = 10Jarocki took 9 of 10
S3Jarocki6Rutkowski4n = 10Jarocki took 6 of 10
S4Jarocki1Rutkowski2n = 3Rutkowski took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home660%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarockiRutkowskiJ − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.628.3+9.3per matchSweeps61+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarockiRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime824 / 1470 vs 785 / 139756.1%56.2%824 / 1470 vs 785 / 1397Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JarockiJarocki 1.74/Rutkowski 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.4%
Jarocki · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 27 · 20:10L. Jarocki351111133M. Rutkowski2274110
LApr 23 · 17:25L. Jarocki2999110M. Rutkowski351111133
WApr 22 · 19:25L. Jarocki331111113M. Rutkowski126240
WApr 21 · 15:05L. Jarocki49111197113M. Rutkowski4159111152
WApr 12 · 21:10L. Jarocki341111123M. Rutkowski1615100
WApr 2 · 19:00L. Jarocki401115143M. Rutkowski29413120
LMar 31 · 16:40L. Jarocki4411118952M. Rutkowski48961111113
WMar 24 · 16:05L. Jarocki46111111133M. Rutkowski407913111
WMar 8 · 20:30L. Jarocki331111113M. Rutkowski216690
WFeb 17 · 18:25L. Jarocki331111113M. Rutkowski195950
L. Jarocki10
LSep 14 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.62114331K. Kapik2.1591111113LSep 14 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.63611461G. Poliniewicz2.0511711113WSep 14 · 08:05L. Jarocki2.16911811113J. Kuzmicz1.5711611792WSep 14 · 06:25A. Sobel2.70261191L. Jarocki1.4111118113WSep 14 · 05:35K. Wisniewski2.38631161L. Jarocki1.5311119113LSep 14 · 04:50L. Jarocki1.92911871K. Glazowski1.7311911113LSep 14 · 03:40L. Jarocki1.839121271M. Malachowski1.87111410113WSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113WSep 1 · 18:50A. Spychala2.207680L. Jarocki1.611111113LSep 1 · 18:05L. Jarocki1.7361370M. Olbrycht2.001115113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 14 · 12:35K. Kapik2.051111113M. Rutkowski1.668640LSep 14 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.83811681M. Malachowski1.8311711113LSep 14 · 09:45M. Rutkowski2.08561151K. Glazowski1.6111118113LSep 14 · 24:10D. Jadam2.389111110113M. Rutkowski1.5311551252WSep 13 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.404111210113A. Wos2.75115101292WSep 13 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.361111113L. Pietraszko3.007890LSep 13 · 21:00M. Rutkowski2.388740F. Mlynarski1.531111113WSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071WSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181
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