TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125268
Played Sep 13Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
41111512101012119
Alan Wos
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Alan Wos below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 70.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 12–4 Alan Wos Alan Wos has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1709 vs Wos 1577
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 132 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 80% vs Wos 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 70% vs Wos 90%
Wos
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +1 · Wos +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Rutkowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wos form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.40 / Wos 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Rutkowski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13125268
Rutkowski1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 354 of 498
Up 2–0, closes it98% 171 of 175
Up 1–0, closes it91% 278 of 307
Wos2.75
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 93 of 302
Down 0–1, comes back17% 30 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski8wins
AwayWos2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski88.9%8 of 9
AwayWosn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski9Wos1n = 10Rutkowski took 9 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Wos5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski4Wos6n = 10Wos took 6 of 10
S4Rutkowski8Wos1n = 9Rutkowski took 8 of 9
S5Rutkowski2Wos2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiWosR − WBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.236.8+6.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiWosBasisWin rate · lifetime784 / 1393 vs 278 / 70556.3%39.4%784 / 1393 vs 278 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.40/Wos 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 5 · 19:40M. Rutkowski40115112113A. Wos4481161182
WJul 5 · 14:35M. Rutkowski50148511123A. Wos501211116102
WJul 3 · 17:40M. Rutkowski4211119113A. Wos30651181
LJun 13 · 16:00M. Rutkowski50117141172A. Wos45211165113
WMay 23 · 20:40M. Rutkowski4011711113A. Wos32611691
WMay 9 · 21:10M. Rutkowski4111117123A. Wos356811101
WMay 1 · 15:55M. Rutkowski331111113A. Wos164570
LApr 11 · 16:45M. Rutkowski5291291392A. Wos5411101111113
WApr 10 · 15:05M. Rutkowski4111811113A. Wos31611591
WApr 4 · 19:30M. Rutkowski43111110113A. Wos31571271
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 14 · 24:10D. Jadam2.389111110113M. Rutkowski1.5311551252WSep 13 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.361111113L. Pietraszko3.007890LSep 13 · 21:00M. Rutkowski2.388740F. Mlynarski1.531111113WSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071WSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181WSep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.5341111113M. Olbrycht2.38113891WSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113LSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113LSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113
A. Wos10
LSep 14 · 24:35A. Wos2.1010111171L. Pietraszko1.6712613113WSep 13 · 22:35A. Wos2.75711126113F. Mlynarski1.40118101142LSep 13 · 21:50D. Jadam1.50691113113A. Wos2.50111161182WSep 13 · 19:40J. Glanowski2.32911791A. Wos1.5011911113WSep 13 · 18:55K. Marchlewski4.7513146982A. Wos1.1311121111113WSep 13 · 18:10A. Wos1.231111113D. Kotwica3.502850WSep 13 · 16:35A. Wos1.45891111113R. Stapor2.5511119582WSep 13 · 15:50K. Rudomina2.0512117842A. Wos1.681091111113WSep 13 · 24:10A. Wos1.271111113D. Kotwica3.206580WSep 12 · 23:20A. Wos1.211113113W. Gluszek3.6061170
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