TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120924
Played Sep 13Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711411––––
Filip Mlynarski
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:00 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Filip Mlynarski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 52 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 63.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 12–8 Filip Mlynarski Filip Mlynarski has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Rutkowski
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1712 vs Mlynarski 1746
Mlynarski
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 100% vs Mlynarski 80%
Rutkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 70% vs Mlynarski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +5 · Mlynarski +1
Rutkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 37% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 2.38 / Mlynarski 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Mlynarski)-2.4pp (anti-value)
TT Elite Series · #13120924
Rutkowski2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog42% won 132 of 315
Down 0–1, comes back22% 42 of 188
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 91
Mlynarski1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 139 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 122
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRutkowski6wins
AwayMlynarski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski100%3 of 3
AwayMlynarski57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski3Mlynarski7n = 10Mlynarski took 7 of 10
S2Rutkowski5Mlynarski5n = 10split evenly
S3Rutkowski8Mlynarski2n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S4Rutkowski3Mlynarski5n = 8Mlynarski took 5 of 8
S5Rutkowski3Mlynarski1n = 4Rutkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRutkowskiMlynarskiR − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.6+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiMlynarskiBasisWin rate · lifetime783 / 1392 vs 176 / 30956.3%57%783 / 1392 vs 176 / 309Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiRutkowski 2.38/Mlynarski 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.4%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 17:40M. Rutkowski331111113F. Mlynarski259970
WAug 8 · 15:45M. Rutkowski47412128113F. Mlynarski481110101162
WAug 3 · 24:10M. Rutkowski4011711113F. Mlynarski34811781
LAug 2 · 19:15M. Rutkowski398911111F. Mlynarski4311118133
LJul 26 · 23:15M. Rutkowski145450F. Mlynarski331111113
WJul 26 · 21:00M. Rutkowski531411116113F. Mlynarski4616661172
WJul 26 · 15:00M. Rutkowski52611177113F. Mlynarski53119151172
WJul 19 · 23:15M. Rutkowski4211911113F. Mlynarski29411771
LJul 19 · 21:00M. Rutkowski4691171182F. Mlynarski45113119113
LJul 19 · 01:10M. Rutkowski33941191F. Mlynarski4011117113
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071WSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142WSep 9 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.8011114113K. Staszczyk1.91661181WSep 9 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.5341111113M. Olbrycht2.38113891WSep 9 · 24:10K. Kapik2.0091170M. Rutkowski1.731113113LSep 8 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.83116111182K. Staszczyk1.83411135113LSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski1.5011118113K. Kostyk2.50761111WSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113LSep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik2.001111113M. Rutkowski1.736980
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 13 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8391111113D. Jadam1.83115881LSep 13 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.5091070K. Staszczyk2.501112113WSep 13 · 17:40F. Mlynarski1.441111113L. Pietraszko2.637470WSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252WSep 13 · 24:35D. Jadam1.8311710F. Mlynarski1.831311113LSep 12 · 22:55P. Jendrzejewski1.9112611113F. Mlynarski1.801011391WSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113WSep 12 · 21:25T. Filbrandt1.9111761172F. Mlynarski1.80511118113LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski1 of 8 neutral
Sep 13 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.36L. Pietraszko3.00—Sep 13 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.40A. Wos2.75—Sep 14 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.53D. Jadam2.38—Sep 14 · 09:45M. Rutkowski—K. Glazowski——Sep 14 · 10:55M. Rutkowski—M. Malachowski——Sep 14 · 11:45M. Rutkowski—L. Jarocki——Sep 14 · 12:35M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——Sep 14 · 14:15M. Rutkowski—G. Poliniewicz——
F. Mlynarski
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