TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13120927
Played Sep 13Finished
Filip Mlynarski
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117114117––––
Lukasz Pietraszko
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukasz Pietraszko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mlynarski above · Lukasz Pietraszko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 51 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Lukasz Pietraszko at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mlynarski 20–11 Lukasz Pietraszko Lukasz Pietraszko has won 11 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:03What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mlynarski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-11 in 31
Mlynarski
Correct
gap of 9 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mlynarski 1725 vs Pietraszko 1646
Mlynarski
Correct
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mlynarski 80% vs Pietraszko 40%
Mlynarski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mlynarski 80% vs Pietraszko 50%
Mlynarski
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mlynarski +3 · Pietraszko -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Mlynarski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mlynarski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMlynarski 1.44 / Pietraszko 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Mlynarski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13120927
Mlynarski1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 139 of 214
Up 2–0, closes it96% 70 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it81% 99 of 122
Pietraszko2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 95 of 257
Down 0–1, comes back18% 27 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMlynarski8wins
AwayPietraszko2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMlynarski leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMlynarski87.5%7 of 8
AwayPietraszkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mlynarski8Pietraszko2n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S2Mlynarski4Pietraszko6n = 10Pietraszko took 6 of 10
S3Mlynarski5Pietraszko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mlynarski8Pietraszko2n = 10Mlynarski took 8 of 10
S5Mlynarski2Pietraszko1n = 3Mlynarski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMlynarskiPietraszkoM − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.738.2+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMlynarskiPietraszkoBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 305 vs 426 / 84656.7%50.4%173 / 305 vs 426 / 846Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MlynarskiMlynarski 1.44/Pietraszko 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Mlynarski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mlynarski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 22:10F. Mlynarski321156101L. Pietraszko4171111123
LSep 6 · 17:40F. Mlynarski4891311962L. Pietraszko491111511113
WAug 22 · 22:10F. Mlynarski4411912123L. Pietraszko4091110101
WAug 22 · 17:40F. Mlynarski4111811113L. Pietraszko34811961
WAug 16 · 21:00F. Mlynarski511110811113L. Pietraszko4591211492
WAug 16 · 15:00F. Mlynarski4111118113L. Pietraszko33671191
WAug 2 · 21:45F. Mlynarski4514911113L. Pietraszko391211881
WAug 2 · 16:55F. Mlynarski46118511113L. Pietraszko3861111462
WJul 19 · 18:50F. Mlynarski4211119113L. Pietraszko34781181
WJul 5 · 23:15F. Mlynarski3741111113L. Pietraszko29113871
F. Mlynarski10
WSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:00F. Mlynarski1.401113811113G. Kesik2.7571511252WSep 13 · 24:35D. Jadam1.8311710F. Mlynarski1.831311113LSep 12 · 22:55P. Jendrzejewski1.9112611113F. Mlynarski1.801011391WSep 12 · 22:10M. Marchlewski2.633640F. Mlynarski1.441111113WSep 12 · 21:25T. Filbrandt1.9111761172F. Mlynarski1.80511118113LSep 12 · 20:05F. Mlynarski1.506116121M. Kolek2.5011511143WSep 12 · 18:30J. Kuzmicz1.6131111592F. Mlynarski2.20113711113WSep 12 · 17:40M. Marchlewski3.0011931172F. Mlynarski1.36711119113WSep 12 · 16:55F. Mlynarski1.731111117113T. Filbrandt2.0013591192
L. Pietraszko10
LSep 13 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10118371D. Jadam1.6781111113LSep 13 · 15:45L. Pietraszko2.38119971K. Staszczyk1.5381111113LSep 9 · 24:35K. Staszczyk1.571512133L. Pietraszko2.251310110WSep 8 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.44118971L. Pietraszko2.6381111113WSep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk2.0081111482L. Pietraszko1.73119911113LSep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik1.73111311113L. Pietraszko2.00815571LSep 8 · 20:05L. Pietraszko3.0081151162M. Rutkowski1.36119117113WSep 8 · 18:30A. Daniel1.33851171L. Pietraszko3.2511117113WSep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk2.2081313852L. Pietraszko1.6111111111113WSep 8 · 16:55L. Pietraszko2.10631111113K. Kapik1.6711116982
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