TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13130084
Played Sep 15Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118117––––
Michal Malachowski
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Malachowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
116118117––––
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 21–19 Michal Malachowski Michal Malachowski has won 19 of their 40 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 18h before this match
Malachowski beat Kapik 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Malachowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-19 in 40
Kapik
Correct
gap of 2 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1686 vs Malachowski 1753
Malachowski
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 60% vs Malachowski 80%
Malachowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 50% vs Malachowski 80%
Malachowski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +2 · Malachowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Malachowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Malachowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 2.00 / Malachowski 1.66
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Malachowski)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13130084
Kapik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 181 of 391
Down 0–1, comes back26% 53 of 207
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 90
Malachowski1.66
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite57% won 113 of 198
Up 2–0, closes it97% 55 of 57
Up 1–0, closes it74% 85 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKapik4wins
AwayMalachowski6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMalachowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKapik60%3 of 5
AwayMalachowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik5Malachowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Kapik7Malachowski3n = 10Kapik took 7 of 10
S3Kapik4Malachowski6n = 10Malachowski took 6 of 10
S4Kapik3Malachowski4n = 7Malachowski took 4 of 7
S5Kapik1Malachowski3n = 4Malachowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKapikMalachowskiK − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.340.5−0.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikMalachowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1117 / 2098 vs 417 / 79053.2%52.8%1117 / 2098 vs 417 / 790Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalachowskiKapik 2.00/Malachowski 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.4%
Malachowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 21:25K. Kapik47174114112M. Malachowski581511811133
LAug 9 · 18:05K. Kapik32512871M. Malachowski43111011113
LJul 9 · 20:05K. Kapik27611100M. Malachowski361113123
WJul 9 · 24:45K. Kapik48711811113M. Malachowski4511711792
LJul 8 · 22:30K. Kapik5191316131M. Malachowski55111118153
LJul 8 · 20:30K. Kapik3941171162M. Malachowski46114119113
WMay 22 · 01:05K. Kapik371111153M. Malachowski2245130
WMay 21 · 22:40K. Kapik4111811113M. Malachowski28311861
WMay 21 · 20:35K. Kapik331111113M. Malachowski269890
LMay 21 · 24:15K. Kapik48111187112M. Malachowski46471111133
K. Kapik10
WSep 15 · 06:25K. Wisniewski1.857740K. Kapik1.801111113LSep 15 · 04:50K. Kapik2.10611111652L. Jarocki1.651191314113WSep 14 · 13:50K. Kapik2.3011116113K. Glazowski1.55751191WSep 14 · 12:35K. Kapik2.051111113M. Rutkowski1.668640LSep 14 · 11:20K. Kapik1.80111176112G. Poliniewicz1.85771111133WSep 14 · 10:05L. Jarocki1.62114331K. Kapik2.1591111113LSep 14 · 09:20K. Kapik2.006990M. Malachowski1.661111113WSep 11 · 24:35K. Kapik1.8311116113J. Mitas1.83891171LSep 10 · 23:45M. Kolek2.381111113K. Kapik1.537570WSep 10 · 22:35K. Kapik2.1011139113M. Olbrycht1.678111191
M. Malachowski10
LSep 15 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.02411491L. Jarocki1.6511911113LSep 15 · 04:25M. Malachowski1.75881161K. Glazowski1.9511117113WSep 14 · 14:35L. Jarocki1.915570M. Malachowski1.801111113WSep 14 · 13:25M. Malachowski1.801113107113G. Poliniewicz1.90411121172LSep 14 · 12:10K. Glazowski1.64118137113M. Malachowski2.04911111182WSep 14 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.83811681M. Malachowski1.8311711113WSep 14 · 09:20K. Kapik2.006990M. Malachowski1.661111113WSep 14 · 07:40A. Sobel2.75711471M. Malachowski1.3711911113WSep 14 · 06:50K. Wisniewski2.201013171292M. Malachowski1.6012151510113WSep 14 · 06:00M. Malachowski2.05116116123K. Glazowski1.65911411102
Upcoming Matches
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