TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13126517
Played Sep 14Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.76
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13116111151311––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.90
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
13116111151311––
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 1–2 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Mateusz Rutkowski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1670 vs Poliniewicz 1693
Poliniewicz
Wrong
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 20% vs Poliniewicz 40%
Poliniewicz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 50% vs Poliniewicz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski -1 · Poliniewicz -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.76 / Poliniewicz 1.90
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rutkowski)+2.1pp
TT Elite Series · #13126517
Rutkowski1.76
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite71% won 356 of 500
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it90% 279 of 309
Poliniewicz1.90
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 127 of 345
Down 0–1, comes back20% 39 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back7% 8 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeRutkowski1wins
AwayPoliniewicz2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski1Poliniewicz2n = 3Poliniewicz took 2 of 3
S2Rutkowski2Poliniewicz1n = 3Rutkowski took 2 of 3
S3Rutkowski1Poliniewicz2n = 3Poliniewicz took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricRutkowskiPoliniewiczR − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match31.034.7−3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime786 / 1399 vs 1243 / 210756.2%59%786 / 1399 vs 1243 / 2107Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.76/Poliniewicz 1.90
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJan 23 · 12:05M. Rutkowski4051161172G. Poliniewicz47118116113
LJan 16 · 15:25M. Rutkowski206680G. Poliniewicz321111103
WJan 1 · 10:05M. Rutkowski331111113G. Poliniewicz257990
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 14 · 12:35K. Kapik2.051111113M. Rutkowski1.668640WSep 14 · 11:45L. Jarocki1.7411991192M. Rutkowski1.95611118113LSep 14 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.83811681M. Malachowski1.8311711113LSep 14 · 09:45M. Rutkowski2.08561151K. Glazowski1.6111118113LSep 14 · 24:10D. Jadam2.389111110113M. Rutkowski1.5311551252WSep 13 · 23:45M. Rutkowski1.404111210113A. Wos2.75115101292WSep 13 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.361111113L. Pietraszko3.007890LSep 13 · 21:00M. Rutkowski2.388740F. Mlynarski1.531111113WSep 10 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.5031112113J. Chmielowski2.501191071WSep 9 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.001113118113K. Kapik1.7391571142
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 14 · 13:25M. Malachowski1.801113107113G. Poliniewicz1.90411121172WSep 14 · 11:20K. Kapik1.80111176112G. Poliniewicz1.85771111133LSep 14 · 10:30K. Glazowski1.58111211113G. Poliniewicz2.14714971WSep 14 · 09:00L. Jarocki1.63611461G. Poliniewicz2.0511711113LSep 12 · 14:35D. Solilo3.10611811113G. Poliniewicz1.2911811982WSep 12 · 13:25G. Poliniewicz1.80127811113M. Kolek1.90101111882WSep 12 · 12:10R. Malinowski4.206870G. Poliniewicz1.161111113WSep 12 · 10:55G. Kesik1.7511116262G. Poliniewicz1.90641111113LSep 12 · 09:20K. Rudomina4.001110911113G. Poliniewicz1.1891211442LSep 12 · 08:05K. Wisniewski1.8011611123G. Poliniewicz1.905119101
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