TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13138680
Played Sep 16Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
101213111181210––
Dawid Kosmal
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:17 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
101213111181210––
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 3–3 Dawid Kosmal Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 04:17What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1706 vs Kosmal 1609
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 80% vs Kosmal 40%
Rutkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 60% vs Kosmal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +1 · Kosmal +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.57 / Kosmal 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Rutkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13138680
Rutkowski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite71% won 354 of 497
Up 2–0, closes it98% 172 of 176
Up 1–0, closes it90% 278 of 308
Kosmal2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 60 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back24% 21 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRutkowski3wins
AwayKosmal3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRutkowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayKosmal66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rutkowski3Kosmal3n = 6split evenly
S2Rutkowski3Kosmal3n = 6split evenly
S3Rutkowski5Kosmal1n = 6Rutkowski took 5 of 6
S4Rutkowski4Kosmal1n = 5Rutkowski took 4 of 5
S5Rutkowski0Kosmal3n = 3Kosmal took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away350%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKosmalR − KBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match44.040.7+3.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKosmalBasisWin rate · lifetime792 / 1409 vs 351 / 65656.2%53.5%792 / 1409 vs 351 / 656Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.57/Kosmal 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJun 9 · 19:25M. Rutkowski5811121211122D. Kosmal609141013143
LJun 8 · 19:25M. Rutkowski4151151192D. Kosmal46118115113
LApr 21 · 17:50M. Rutkowski4687111192D. Kosmal50111189113
WMar 11 · 20:00M. Rutkowski4511815113D. Kosmal353111381
WFeb 6 · 17:40M. Rutkowski4071111113D. Kosmal31119831
WFeb 4 · 17:40M. Rutkowski341211113D. Kosmal2210660
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 16 · 15:00D. Solilo3.759111111113M. Rutkowski1.2511813842WSep 16 · 12:35G. Poliniewicz1.951186141M. Rutkowski1.7071111163LSep 16 · 11:45M. Olbrycht2.09813811113M. Rutkowski1.61111111592WSep 16 · 10:55M. Rutkowski1.8512167133P. Jendrzejewski1.85101411111WSep 16 · 09:45M. Rutkowski1.831111125113K. Kapik1.8789141162WSep 15 · 14:35M. Malachowski1.867950M. Rutkowski1.801111113LSep 15 · 13:25M. Rutkowski1.9597110K. Glazowski1.701111133LSep 15 · 12:10L. Jarocki1.731011129113M. Rutkowski1.92122101132WSep 15 · 10:55M. Miastowski1.51491151M. Rutkowski2.2811118113LSep 15 · 09:20M. Sklensky1.6161212113M. Rutkowski2.0911101061
D. Kosmal10
WSep 16 · 13:25P. Jendrzejewski1.65981111112D. Kosmal2.10111155133LSep 16 · 11:20G. Poliniewicz1.651111710113D. Kosmal2.1066111252LSep 16 · 10:30K. Kapik1.571111113D. Kosmal2.169630LSep 16 · 09:00M. Olbrycht1.7561111113D. Kosmal1.90115971WSep 16 · 07:40D. Kosmal1.90121188113M. Olbrycht1.80108111172WSep 16 · 06:25D. Kosmal2.20115611123P. Jendrzejewski1.57511118102LSep 16 · 05:15D. Kosmal1.73891151K. Wisniewski1.9811117113WSep 16 · 04:00G. Poliniewicz1.5511511492D. Kosmal2.20711711113LSep 16 · 03:20D. Kosmal2.2011511692K. Kapik1.57711911113WSep 11 · 14:35D. Kosmal1.96116117113K. Wisniewski1.6951161172
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski
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D. Kosmal
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