TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13135151
Played Sep 16Finished
Bartosz Sulkowski
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119119711911911
Maciej Kolek
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingBartosz Sulkowski above · Maciej Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 98 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Bartosz Sulkowski 28–39 Maciej Kolek Bartosz Sulkowski has won 28 of their 67 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-39 in 67
Kolek
Correct
gap of 11 in 67, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1528 vs Kolek 1686
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 158 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 80% vs Kolek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 60% vs Kolek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +4 · Kolek +1
Sulkowski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 3.25 / Kolek 1.33
Signal prob.26% / 74%
Edge (Kolek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13135151
Sulkowski3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 154 of 474
Down 0–1, comes back17% 46 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Kolek1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite60% won 254 of 421
Up 2–0, closes it94% 88 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it81% 190 of 236
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski3wins
AwayKolek7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski0%0 of 3
AwayKolek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski3Kolek7n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S2Sulkowski6Kolek4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S3Sulkowski2Kolek8n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S4Sulkowski4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S5Sulkowski3Kolek2n = 5Sulkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiKolekS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.244.2−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime557 / 1255 vs 699 / 140544.4%49.8%557 / 1255 vs 699 / 1405Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekSulkowski 3.25/Kolek 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.1%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 12:40B. Sulkowski491211411113M. Kolek4514611682
LAug 12 · 09:25B. Sulkowski351168101M. Kolek4281111123
LAug 8 · 22:55B. Sulkowski34811691M. Kolek3911611113
LAug 8 · 20:30B. Sulkowski43410111172M. Kolek49111278113
WJul 12 · 11:45B. Sulkowski48611119113M. Kolek4611691192
LJul 10 · 10:35B. Sulkowski30314671M. Kolek45111211113
LJul 9 · 03:20B. Sulkowski3910118101M. Kolek4112611123
WJun 18 · 11:25B. Sulkowski47811611113M. Kolek4211711582
LJun 14 · 06:10B. Sulkowski4011471172M. Kolek51911119113
LJun 11 · 08:10B. Sulkowski27114571M. Kolek4291111113
B. Sulkowski10
LSep 16 · 16:05D. Solilo1.7313119123B. Sulkowski2.0011911101WSep 11 · 14:40B. Sulkowski1.8011114113M. Zagajewski1.86681171WSep 11 · 13:05B. Sulkowski1.8591113113B. Mleczko1.851151171WSep 11 · 11:50B. Sulkowski1.9211411113M. Misiak1.73811861WSep 11 · 10:10B. Sulkowski1.751111113R. Stapor1.959880LSep 11 · 09:00B. Sulkowski2.201151181B. Czerwinski1.5871113113LSep 11 · 07:40K. Wisniewski1.2211118123B. Sulkowski3.756511101WSep 11 · 06:50D. Solilo1.8559100B. Sulkowski1.801111123LSep 11 · 06:00B. Sulkowski1.9311911562B. Mleczko1.78711911113LSep 11 · 04:25B. Sulkowski1.91811712102A. Linek1.801161110123
M. Kolek10
WSep 14 · 19:40M. Kolek1.6112911113K. Rudomina2.201011881LSep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek1.6188111192A. Linek2.20111153113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek1.57811118113K. Kostyk2.2511761162WSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153WSep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek2.103K. Staszczyk1.670LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280WSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291
Upcoming Matches
B. Sulkowski
Sep 16 · 17:20B. Sulkowski4.00M. Rutkowski1.22—Sep 16 · 18:30B. Sulkowski1.83M. Minda1.83—Sep 16 · 19:40B. Sulkowski2.10J. Zochniak1.67—Sep 16 · 21:00B. Sulkowski2.00D. Solilo1.73—Sep 16 · 22:55B. Sulkowski1.44J. Lamperski2.63—Sep 16 · 23:45B. Sulkowski4.00K. Staszczyk1.22—Sep 17 · 24:10B. Sulkowski3.25M. Kolek1.33—
M. Kolek
Sep 16 · 18:05M. Kolek1.57J. Zochniak2.25—Sep 16 · 19:15M. Kolek2.25M. Rutkowski1.57—Sep 16 · 20:30M. Kolek1.83D. Solilo1.83—Sep 16 · 21:25M. Kolek1.25J. Lamperski3.75—Sep 16 · 21:50M. Kolek2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 16 · 23:20M. Kolek1.83D. Solilo1.83—Sep 17 · 24:10M. Kolek1.33B. Sulkowski3.25—Sep 17 · 15:25M. Kolek—M. Rutkowski——Sep 17 · 16:55M. Kolek—A. Mugowski——Sep 17 · 18:05M. Kolek—D. Solilo——
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