TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13125420
Played Sep 14Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210911118118––
Kamil Rudomina
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Kamil Rudomina below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 22–15 Kamil Rudomina Kamil Rudomina has won 15 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-15 in 37
Kolek
Correct
gap of 7 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1681 vs Rudomina 1465
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 215 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Rudomina 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 70% vs Rudomina 40%
Kolek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -1 · Rudomina +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rudomina form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.61 / Rudomina 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Kolek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13125420
Kolek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As favourite60% won 259 of 429
Up 2–0, closes it94% 94 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it81% 195 of 241
Rudomina2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 191 of 529
Down 0–1, comes back21% 63 of 300
Down 0–2, comes back9% 13 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek8wins
AwayRudomina2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKolek leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek75%6 of 8
AwayRudominan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek8Rudomina2n = 10Kolek took 8 of 10
S2Kolek6Rudomina4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Kolek7Rudomina3n = 10Kolek took 7 of 10
S4Kolek5Rudomina2n = 7Kolek took 5 of 7
S5Kolek2Rudomina2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekRudominaK − RBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.134.7+6.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekRudominaBasisWin rate · lifetime698 / 1404 vs 973 / 209449.7%46.5%698 / 1404 vs 973 / 2094Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.61/Rudomina 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 11:20M. Kolek4611791182K. Rudomina43411116113
WAug 31 · 22:10M. Kolek331111113K. Rudomina239680
WAug 28 · 08:30M. Kolek46612116113K. Rudomina47111091162
WAug 12 · 14:40M. Kolek4211119113K. Rudomina35991161
WJul 7 · 14:40M. Kolek4312911113K. Rudomina351011771
WJun 12 · 01:00M. Kolek351111133K. Rudomina2155110
LJun 11 · 22:35M. Kolek47116111182K. Rudomina51811813113
WJun 6 · 10:20M. Kolek331111113K. Rudomina216870
WJun 6 · 08:20M. Kolek43101111113K. Rudomina28124841
WJun 5 · 14:20M. Kolek43116411113K. Rudomina4391111482
M. Kolek10
LSep 14 · 18:30M. Kolek1.6188111192A. Linek2.20111153113WSep 14 · 17:20M. Kolek1.57811118113K. Kostyk2.2511761162WSep 14 · 16:05J. Witkowski1.8065130M. Kolek1.911111153WSep 14 · 15:25M. Kolek2.103K. Staszczyk1.670LSep 13 · 19:40M. Kolek2.20611611102K. Staszczyk1.61115114123WSep 13 · 18:30M. Kolek1.911111113L. Pietraszko1.809280WSep 13 · 17:20M. Kolek1.501011118153G. Kesik2.50124211132LSep 13 · 16:05F. Mlynarski1.4451111113M. Kolek2.63118411WSep 13 · 15:25M. Kolek2.2511914113D. Jadam1.574111291WSep 13 · 14:35T. Piotrowski3.055580M. Kolek1.291111113
K. Rudomina10
WSep 14 · 18:50J. Witkowski1.445770K. Rudomina2.631111113LSep 14 · 18:05K. Rudomina2.75119871K. Staszczyk1.4061111113WSep 14 · 16:30K. Rudomina1.91111111113K. Kostyk1.80136951LSep 14 · 15:45A. Linek1.731151110123K. Rudomina2.00911912102WSep 14 · 24:35A. Linek1.884990K. Rudomina1.821111113LSep 13 · 22:55R. Stapor1.9711311113K. Rudomina1.69611761WSep 13 · 22:15K. Marchlewski3.3511781152K. Rudomina1.25811115113LSep 13 · 21:30D. Kotwica1.80118119113K. Rudomina1.9181191182LSep 13 · 20:05K. Rudomina1.74741171R. Stapor1.9011116113LSep 13 · 18:30J. Glanowski1.80941111113K. Rudomina1.9011116652
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